The tide against the so-called omnipotent Modi government seems to be decisively turning. The Nirav Modi affair could be the last straw (rather last diamond) on the proverbial back of the NDA. Not only the last name of the scamster is Modi, but both the namesakes seem to know each other so well that even in the exotic Davos, they could embrace each other and appeared in a common photograph.
But that the tide is turning is also evident from the fact that the admiring (and sycophantic) columnists have begun to express doubts about Modi becoming Prime Minister again in 2019. Chetan Bhagat went to the extent of advising Rahul Gandhi and his handlers as to how and what he should do to come to power. True, he put in a caveat saying that Modi is still invincible! Then there is the famous corporate intellectual Gur Charan Das, who is worried that the issues like beef and strident anti-Muslim campaigns could undermine the good and great work of the Modi government. Though he cited a few achievements (though questionable and dubious), he was afraid that the voters are turning away from the communal and intolerant BJP led by the Hindutva gangs of the RSS.
Even the renowned and redoubtable Swapan Dasgupta who was hugely forgiving to Modi, for his sins of omission and commission, wrote a column expressing serious doubt about a victory in 2019. Lord Meghnad Desai, once a comrade in his youth and later a liberal (and now neo-liberal) columnist expressed disappointment and added that the people are getting disillusioned. He has been a strong advocate of Modi so far. The famous, self-declared right-wing columnist Tavleen Singh is writing almost every week that Modi is not carrying out economic reforms and allowing the “fringe” fanatics to usurp the political agenda of the BJP.
Swaminathan S Ankakeswar Aiyar, known for his fierce individualism and support for genuine right wing (even neo-liberal) policies, and a strong critic of the Congress policies (particularly of Pandit Nehru and Indira Gandhi), has now launched a blistering attack on Modi’s protectionist policies that resemble Nehru’s (obstructive and regressive) socialist approach. Aiyar too had hoped and thought that Modi is a reformer! There were fence sitters and anti-Congress commentators, who thought and wished Modi to make India corruption-free and Congress-Mukt! But when they saw the BJP on a recruitment mission of those very congress leaders whose corruption record was well known, even they started logging out!
For almost three years these and others, not only “Bhakts” but other naive well-wishers of Narendra Modi were sure that Modi will be Prime Minister till 2029, winning both, 2019 and 2024 Loksabha elections. Congress era was over, Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is heading for oblivion and new (Hindu!) India has begun to emerge which soon will become superpower was their belief. Their conviction was that Modi will surpass all icons like Nehru, even Mahatma Gandhi. That is why they did not find anything odd when they saw Narendra Modi on “Charakha” weaving yarn, in the same place as Gandhiji on portraits and calendars.
They vehemently and even viciously attacked and regularly trolled those who disagreed with them were on March to erase not only last 70 years’ history but even the freedom movement itself because it was led by Gandhiji and Nehru. They are trying to replace Nehru with Deen Dayal Upadhyay. They want to replace Gandhiji after “winning” 2019 election. Till then the Mahatma is supposed to be the brand ambassador for the “Swachhata Abhiyan”! Once the Gandhi-Nehru hurdle is out, the space will then be open for Hedgewars and Golwalkars. Then not only Ram Mandir at Ayodhya will be built, there will also be “Nathuram Mandirs” across the country to honour Nathuram Godse for the great work done of killing the Mahatma.
The changes in the Constituion, to remove terms like secularism and socialism, and replacing them with Hindu Rashtra will have to wait till the victories of 2019 or perhaps 2024. Earlier both Modi and his Sancho Panza, Amit Shah, were so confident of 2019 that they were projecting 350 to 400 seats in Loksabha. Even a large number of opposition leaders began to say that in 2019, Modi victory is assured. Modi wants to cross the highest Congress figure of Nehru, Indira, and Rajiv.
The so-called success of demonetisation and a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh assembly election, their confidence level reached cloud 9. The clouds began to dissipate during the Gujarat campaign. Most BJP leaders began to say that Gujarat results were a stunning setback. The BJP which wanted and hoped to win 151 Sears in Gujarat could not even compete century as they ended up at 99. That was just seven seats more than simple majority.
That shocked the so-called “unconquerable” Amit Shah. He was similarly humiliated when Ahmad Patel won Rajya Sabha seat. In fact, Ahmad Patel had thrown a gauntlet at Amit Shah and challenged him for assembly election. Shah, in his own delusion of his massive election campaign, had ignored the warning. It is said that whosoever the campaign volunteers were, they were told that Modi’s charisma and Shah’s war machine will move heavens but will win Gujarat with 150 plus seats.
But as they saw Rahul Gandhi’s campaign succeeding, they began to develop cold feet and the results shattered them. Now they have begun to fear reverses in Rajasthan (where the BJP lost all by polls), Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh where elections are scheduled at the year-end. Before that there is Karnataka. Apprehending that the BJP cannot get its majority in Karnataka, Shah has struck a deal with Deve Gowda and his son, Kumaraswamy. According to the MoU between them, Kumaraswamy will be made chief minister in the Karnataka ministry which the BJP will join, even if they have more seats.
The level of desperation is written large on the faces of the Sanghparivar. They will lose at least 100 seats to bring their tally from 282 to 182 in the Loksabha. In that scenario, who will be the Prime Minister? The names of Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj are tossed around, but there are also contenders emerging like Nitish Kumar or Chandra Babu with the BJP support. Sharad Pawar will be an eternal candidate for the top job,
The point is that the stage is getting set for the most dramatic (perhaps violent) developments in 2019, which no one can predict. Suddenly the tide has turned and the Modi-Shah duo has begun to realise that they too are political mortals like the rest.
Time for the liberals to unite
Face of Fascism
Intellectuals and political sociologists have been arguing and interpreting for almost 70 years as to what we mean in India, by the terms-Fascism and Secularism. Even Nationalism! Influenced by the Western philosophical and political traditions, some argue that all these terms have roots in Europe’s history of the last nearly thousand years.
So to condemn the broadly accepted interpretations, they will question what Fascism means, what is the connotation of Secularism and of course what is the content of the term Nationalism. So let us begin with the controversy about the term Fascism. The great Marxist intellectual leader Prakash Karat famously said that it is the RSS is Fascist, but not the BJP which is communal. Everyone knows that the BJP is a political front of the RSS. Yet he dared to say this.
Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru had presciently warned us exactly seventy years ago, in precise words, of the dangers of Fascism in India. But we, meaning all of us, the Leftists, Liberals, Media, Academics and Intellectuals were either complacent, indifferent or irresponsible. We took for granted that we as a nation, we as a civilisation, we as a culture (“and for some, we as Hindus!”) will never succumb to the forces of Fascism
In a letter to the chief ministers, on December 7, 1947, just a month and a half before the murder of the Mahatma, he wrote, “We have a great deal of evidence to show that the RSS is an organisation, which is proceeding on the strictest Nazi lines, even following the technique of organisation. The German youth drifted towards the Nazi Party because of their negative programmes which did not require an active effort of mind. The Nazi Party brought Germany to ruin and I have little doubt that if these tendencies are allowed to spread and increase in India, they would do enormous injury to India. No doubt, India would survive, but she would be grievously wounded and would take a long time to recover”
There are some myths, believed even by liberals, that Hindu civilisation by definition is plural and multi-cultural and will resist the regressive and unicolour forces of fascism. Then there are some naive intellectuals who think that the various public institutions are so entrenched that they will defeat the fascistic design. This faith has been belied totally.
One of the most naive and too simplistic an argument has been that the BJP led by Narendra Modi has been elected by the people and should be given undisturbed five years as it is the people’s will that he and his party (and their mentors, the RSS) represent. Indeed, Adolf Hitler too was elected and even Mussolini represented their people.
But according to the well-known political sociologist, Bertram Gross, even in the developed western democracies, fascism can come to power. His book, “Friendly Fascism”, written in the late seventies, says even in America fascism can come to power through electoral politics. His fears have almost come true with the election of Donald Trump as a president. He wrote the book, with the subtitle “The New Face of Power in America”! Similar winds are blowing in Western Europe, as the global capitalism faces deeper and deeper crisis. The Marxist dictum that Fascism is a manifestation of “final solution” of the capitalism with its anti-people policies and actions.
The state governments under the Modi regime are virtually at the feet of the Prime Minister. From their budgetary allocations to the so-called smart city plans. And from loan waiving programmes to who should be included or dropped from the state ministries. The interference of the Prime Minister’s office is so sweeping that even the chief ministers cannot act on their own. So let us see the validity of the argument that our so-called “strong institutions” will not let fascism enter here!
Take the most prestigious and truly independent institution-the Reserve Bank of India. We saw how the RBI surrendered its autonomy to the executive led by Narendra Modi. The disruptive demonetisation which brought misery to a vast number of people was announced and implemented without proper scrutiny by the RBI. The Non-Performing Assets of banks have been playing havoc with the system and the RBI would not even declare the names of the (crony) capitalists.
Even after 17 months of the demonetisation, we still do not know how many notes came back to the RBI. Now many people suspect that more notes came back than what was believed to be in actual circulation. Some others feel that the old notes are being clandestinely getting exchanged even now and the RBI is keeping eyes closed. The reason appears to be that the RBI is gripped by “fear psychosis”. The fear of the Modi-Shah duo and their massive and threatening organisational machine, partly of the RSS and partly be the Intelligence bureaucracy.
Take the Election Commission. It just repeats what the Prime Minister says. One Nation, One Election, was one such idea, announced by Narendra Modi. The obvious absurdity and impracticality of the idea became obvious soon. Suddenly it has gone off headlines. The non-cooperative approach of the Election Commission on the issue of EVMs and restarting the ballot papers method, is another example.
The so-called autonomous status of universities is so completely undermined that everything is dictated by the HRD ministry-from appointments of vice-chancellors to even the syllabus and campus rules. Earlier, even the police could not enter these supposed temples of knowledge. Now the police enter the campuses without any compunction and the government wants to display military tanks at the gates as a display of patriotic spirit.
All grant-in-aid educational institutions have to follow the diktats of the government. The books on history and politics are being changed with a view to erasing the roles, Pandit Nehru and other tall secular leaders. They want to erase or distort the very history of the freedom movement under the guidelines of the RSS. Now according to the fresh diktats, all 15 lakh National Cadet Course (NCC) students are supposed to be the parallel armed force, with their cell phones and mail ids submitted to the PMO.
The Intelligence agencies, the IB, the ED, the CBI and NIA have become tools of the government to blackmail and terrorise political leaders, writers, journalists and artists—filmmakers and painters and poets and cartoonists. The bureaucracy was always subservient but now it has become a slave. The judiciary is cunningly circumvented by using all means—sam, dam, dand, bhed that is persuade, bribe, reprimand or terrorise and divide to rule. The judges are transferred at the shortest notice, kicked upwards, bribed, jailed or even killed!
Some intellectuals obfuscate the issue of fascism by saying that the situations in India cannot be compared with those in Italy in the twenties and in Germany in the thirties. Of course, no situations in different countries could be in a ditto format. There will be variation in different countries, different cultures and different peoples. But we have to identify and diagnose similar attributes and elements that define the fascistic rule.
Those elements are: systematic creation and spread of fear psychosis, persecution of rival political parties and leaders, controlling the media and terrorising the opposition, blackmailing the critics and detractors, using violence as means of dividing the communities on religious and caste lines, and generating hyper-nationalistic and jingoistic, xenophobic mindsets. All this by actively promoting obscene personality cult and setting up a caucus that rules bypassing the Parliament, cabinet, parliamentary bodies etc.
The Indian version of fascism is based on majoritarianism, Hindu communal consolidation, isolating minorities—mainly Muslims, threatening and terrorising them, destroying their places of worship, killing helpless and hapless Muslims, raping women and so on. Using tradition, religion, culture, language and superstition for establishing unidimensional and uniform power structure.
The educational institutions have lost the spine and autonomy. From textbooks to the courses and syllabus are now controlled by the State led by Modi. The upper caste families in particular, despite their higher education as well as exposure to the developed countries, have been supporting communal and fascistic organisations. The media, which is supposed be the watchdog of the people, and defender of freedoms and civil liberties have become lapdogs, barking at everyone else, but the Master!
Fascism indeed has many faces. Indian fascism is no less anti-civilisational, no less brutal and no less authoritarian than that of Hitler, Mussolini or Franco. It is time for all those who believe in democracy, secularism and liberal values to stand up and fight.
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Mood, Moody’s and Modi
Many news magazines, in English and regional languages, conduct at regular intervals, polls to monitor the mood of the people. Then there are national and international institutions like Moody’s, who keep track of the economic swings. When elections come (and they come quite frequently), the opinion polls try to follow the electoral trends. It has become an obsession for some glossy magazines to constantly watch the mood fluctuations about Modi’s popularity! It is boosted by positive ratings from Moody’s and rising Sensex and declines by the growing social restlessness. There appears to be a link between Moods, Moody’s and Modi—so this is not just alliteration!
I don’t want to go into the merits or demerits of all these “mood measurements”. There is enough experience based on scepticism about all these polls and suggested trends. The actual voting has exposed quite often the falsehood and illusion about the opinion polls. Occasionally, they have come close to the results, and then they are flaunted as evidence of “science of psephology”!
And yet it is a multi-million rupee (or dollar!) business all over the world. Once a “poll-sceptic” asked in a panel discussion, on one of those political entertainment shows: what is the difference between astrological predictions and poll predictions? Another panelists interjected and said, actually, the pollsters too consult astrologers! Just as “satta” players in the stock markets do!
All aspects of our life now are governed by such polls. Entertainment TV channels change stories, actors, costumes, timings of the show according to the trade ratings, known popularly as TRPs. In a country of over 130 crore people and almost 70 percent connectivity, there are a few hundred, perhaps a few thousand, meters which measure the viewership patterns.
There are over 800 channels, most of them either entertainment or religious or astrological or infotainment. News channels are about 200, including local language ones. Most of them, for the past three years, have been toeing the government line (is it line or propaganda? Difficult to say). Also, they are clones of each other. Even if one surfs all news channels, what one sees is the same story, often done with the same angle of camera and content.
How come, the TRP monitors have not noted that the viewers are getting more and more disgusted. When the liberals had demanded the privatisation of TV channels and end of the government monopoly of Doordarshan, it was believed that plurality of news and views, a multiplicity of cultural expressions, variety of literary and science shows will come on the screen, educating and intelligently entertaining the people. In reality, even the story content of all serials (languages included), is getting identical. Instead of diversity, we are celebrating uniformity.
The so-called free competition was to bring about different types of products, brands, companies and of course prices. But we are witnessing boring and totally monotonous consumer products. From shaving creams to shoes, from mobile phone handsets to television sets. Now even the decor and interiors of shopping malls are getting so identical that it is difficult to distinguish one from the other.
Once you create such tiring uniformity in products, entertainment, news, views and media, then it is possible to control the “mood” of the people. Several social scientists have begun to say that globalisation has become corporatisation and through that the big businesses have begun to control not only the media but also the messages and the moods. So the opinion polls and the TRPs are aiming at destroying the diversity and plurality.
All this became possible because of communication and information technology. It is logical therefore that all citizens are compelled to possess all the time the Aadhar Card and also Pan Card. The idea of Hindu Monolith Vote Bank comes from such (sick) minds. “One nation, one election” proposal (totally impractical one) came out of such complicated socio-political and economic processes.
That is why, the Nobel Laureate in economics Joseph Stieglitz has warned the world that the globalisation, instead of promoting global diversity, has brought about global discontent and fragmentation of societies. The protagonists of globalisation thought 30 years ago that there would be a world without borders, markets without national barriers, free movement of labour, global competition and all that would lead to a celebration of diversity and democracy.
In reality, we are seeing, at international level, protectionism, closing of borders, even erecting walls, ruthlessly stopping migrants from entering other countries. The apologists of the global business say now that the process will take time. But the so called market forces do not want to wait. They are selling more and more destructive weapons to all small or big countries, different ethnic groups and even terrorist outfits.
Let us not ignore the fact that the Talibanis and ISIS, White Supremacists and Christian fundamentalists, identitarian political groups and religious parties, climate destroyers and mindless technocrats emerged on the scene after globalisation. New dictatorships, sanctioned and elected by democratic means are also products of last three decades of globalisation. Furled by drug trade and arms trade, the World is becoming more and more unsafe.
From renowned climatologist like Al Gore to science genius like Stephen Hawking and from creative film maker Steven Spielberg to Poet-singer like Bob Dylan are expressing concern about the future of humanity. The physicist Martin Rees, has gone a step ahead. He sees this century as the final century. The progress of civilisation will bring about destruction of it. But no pollster has measured the seriousness of coming Apocalypse!
At the root is human weakness. Mahatma Gandhi warned more than 80 years ago: this earth and nature have enough for all the mankind’s need, but not enough for the human greed!!
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