BJP’ Dialing Down On ‘400 Paar’ Slogan?

In the ongoing election saga, the chant of ‘Ab ki baar 400 paar’ has faded into the background after two phases and five more to go. The political landscape paints a picture devoid of a nationwide wave, as regional issues have taken priority over the Narendra Modi brand.
Once hopeful of winning ‘400 plus’ seats, the BJP’s ambitions now seem unrealistic. The party’s focus has changed as it experiences a decline in popularity, especially in the northern and central states where it was previously very strong.

To understand “why BJP Abki baar, not 400 paar,” South first conducted an analysis. After multiple conversations with BJP leaders, what seems to have changed between 2019 and now?

1) Following a setback from defeats in three states, the party quickly got down to the task of correcting the situation on the ground. The Congress’ triumph in all three Hindi heartland states during the closely contested assembly elections.
2) Drawing inspiration from Telangana’s “Rytu Bandhu” initiative pioneered by K Chandrashekar Rao, the implementation of the PM Kisaan Samman scheme provides income support to landowners. In the Rythu Bandhu scheme, also referred to as the Farmer’s Investment Support Scheme (FISS), was started by the government of Telangana in 2018 as a welfare program aimed at supporting farmers. Similarly, under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, the government provides income support of Rs 6,000 per year to all farmer families who have cultivable land registered in their name, regardless of the size of the landholdings.
3) And then happened the Balakot terror attack in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir, which left 40 paramilitary personnel dead. The attack led the Indian Air Force to launch a surgical strike in Balakot, Pakistan, which gave rise to “nationalistic passion” and the consequent conversion into votes.

Now, let us look at what happened between then and now:

1) Narendra Modi’s persona has evolved into a phenomenon, likened to a tsunami, Vishwa guru, and even an Avatar. The party’s entire campaign strategy revolves around this image, leaving no room for alternative plans. Like modern dictators, including Modi himself, they manipulate information flow to sway public opinion and garner support.
2) Their approach focuses on adapting and exploiting democracy’s vulnerabilities to maintain power. They invest heavily in the less costly alternative of shaping public opinion rather than outright high-handed methods – all the while pretending to be Democrats.
3) Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured victories in three key Hindi-speaking states, unseating the opposition in two. The BJP retained power in Madhya Pradesh and took control from the Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which numbed the leadership as everything appeared to be going well.
4) The BJP manifesto, unveiled by Modi at the party headquarters in New Delhi, has drawn attention for its notable absence of new welfare initiatives despite concerns over rising unemployment and inflation. Instead, it emphasizes a vision for India’s development by 2047, coinciding with the centenary of independence, dubbed “Viksit Bharat 2047”. Modi expressed confidence in securing a third term, highlighting ongoing government efforts and a 100-day action plan post-election results. Interestingly, the BJP delayed releasing its manifesto, seemingly banking on the Ram temple inauguration in Ayodhya to secure votes. The overconfidence that Modi attempted to exude while delivering his speech did not match the restlessness he displayed when the Congress manifesto was released, where the opposition criticized the government’s handling of economic challenges. Despite the BJP’s optimism, questions linger over the practicality of their promises, especially given the lack of immediate welfare measures.

The brazen attack on Muslims has further made 400 paar impossible:

1) Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced backlash and accusations of spreading hatred against Muslims after controversial comments on Sunday wherein he equated the community to “infiltrators” and peddled anti-Muslim tropes in the middle of the country’s general elections. Speaking at a crowded rally in the western state of Rajasthan, Modi said if the opposition led by the Congress party came to power, it would distribute the country’s wealth among “those who have more children”, in an apparent reference to Muslims, whom he had spoken about just before.
2) Among BJP supporters, the “ethical voter” mindset contrasts sharply with that of Congress supporters, forming a distinct ideological bloc within the party. This group, comprising individuals from various affiliated organizations like the RSS, VHP, and ABVP, finds reconciling with recent controversial actions challenging. As a result, their enthusiasm has waned, reflected in the drop in voter turnout in the initial phases. Even educated first-time voters are reconsidering their support for the BJP, finding it less appealing on an “idealism scale.”
3) As per South’s first reports, despite years of brainwashing, the increasing prevalence of overt hate speech is causing discomfort. A BJP official noted that while many Hindus tolerate calculated communal rhetoric, they draw the line at blatant Muslim vilification. They prefer governance that addresses Muslim concerns without stoking conflict. This sentiment highlights a nuanced stance within the Hindu community, emphasizing inclusivity over divisiveness.

ALSO READ: Chikkaballapura: BJP Candidate K Sudhakar Booked For Alleged Bribery

4) Another reason is Crimes against women and sexual violence which have increased in 10 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rule, a report said. The report titled ‘Nari Shakti: Myth and Reality’, is a report on the status of women under the Modi Government. The report, quoting the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, noted the total number of crimes against women increased from 3,37,922 in 2014 to 3,71,503 in 2020. The number of crimes against women per lakh of the population increased from 56.3 in 2014 to 66.4 in 2022, the report said, adding that 2022 saw a grim escalation of crimes against women from 2021 and 2020, with a staggering 4,45,256 cases registered.
5) PM Modi emphasizes a guarantee: India will become the third largest economy during his third term. However, a paradox arises: Why extend free food distribution to 80 crore people if India’s economy is booming? Despite claims of prosperity, India slips in the Global Hunger Index, ranking 111 out of 125 countries. This contradiction has defined Modi’s political economy over nearly a decade. Despite poor growth, employment, and investment outcomes, the PM’s PR machine touts India as a global bright spot.
6) According to reports, Party leaders confess that the’ 400 paar’ slogan caused enough damage before it was abandoned. Dalits are worried about the continuance of reservations if the BJP indeed secures 400 plus. No one who matters in the party has visualized that this slogan could hurt instead of creating a positive narrative.

Now let us understand why ‘BJP will scrap reservations’ is gaining so much traction.

Without the backing of non-upper caste voters, the Modi government’s sustainability is in question. The BJP’s rise has been fueled by its increasing influence over the OBC electorate since 2009, as highlighted by CSDS data. From 17% in 2009, the party secured nearly 47% of the OBC vote in 2019. However, this support is at risk if the BJP is perceived as anti-reservation. Notably, BJP leaders’ rallying cry of “400 seats = constitution change” has sparked concerns among Dalit, tribal, and OBC constituents. The absence of “400 paar” rhetoric reflects growing apprehensions within these communities regarding potential reservation threats.

But the BJP leaders say, 400 = ‘change constitution’ lets see how:

1) Bibek Debroy, chairman of the PM’s Economic Advisory Council, initiated the discourse with his article advocating for a new constitution in August 2023. His remarks, deemed personal opinion, nevertheless resonated, given his close association with Modi.
2) BJP MP Anantkumar Hegde further fueled the debate on March 11, 2024, setting a 400-seat target for constitutional amendments. Hegde’s affiliation with the Sangh added weight to his assertion, despite not being a Lok Sabha candidate.
3) The momentum continued as Jyoti Mirdha, a recent Congress defector, hinted at the necessity of a large majority to enact constitutional changes on April 2, 2024.
4) Similarly, veteran UP MP Lallu Singh emphasized the need for a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments during a public address in Milkipur.
5) Arun Govil, BJP’s Meerut candidate, echoed these sentiments on April 15, endorsing constitutional modifications as signs of development.
6) Despite attempts by some leaders to backtrack or clarify their statements, the narrative persists, raising concerns among Dalit, tribal, and OBC supporters about potential repercussions on reservation policies. The BJP’s silence on the issue further amplifies uncertainties, leaving room for speculation ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Therefore, is it the end of the road for Modi? Not quite! Despite the challenges, it seems Modi and Amit Shah are still in the race. While the BJP may not cross the 400 mark, what if the BJP falls short of the 270 mark? If yes, then:
A. All the allies may seek to go elsewhere.
B. The NDA allies may seek an option for PM Modi.
C. Internal opposition may form.

Will BJP allies stick around or start scouting for new alliances? It’s a cliffhanger until June 4.