Politics

Where Will The NCP Go From Here?

It is true that the NCP formally split and that Ajit Pawar took control of the original party, aligning with the BJP both in the state and at the Centre. But it is equally true that, unlike the Shiv Sena, the NCP never truly fractured at the grassroots. Across both factions, there remained camaraderie, tacit cooperation, and within the Pawar family itself, a sense of normalcy. Sharad Pawar effectively allowed one group to support the ruling BJP while he led another aligned with the INDIA bloc.

 

With yesterday’s tragic loss of Ajit Pawar in a plane crash, the NCP has lost its central pillar of leadership. And when I say the NCP, I do not mean only the Ajit Pawar faction. I mean the party as a whole. Sharad Pawar is now advanced in age and no longer in a position to lead the party on the ground, either physically or politically. Supriya Sule, despite her stature and credibility, is not a mass, on ground leader who can command the organisation, take hard electoral calls, and deliver victories under her own leadership.

 

Sharad Pawar’s long standing plan was always to reunite the factions at a time of his choosing, read the political tide carefully, and then decide whether his group would support the BJP led Mahayuti or whether the reunited NCP would return to the Sena and Congress led Maha Vikas Aghadi. That decision was meant to be strategic and deliberate. Fate, however, has forced his hand. That moment has arrived, not by choice, but by circumstance.

 

Leaders like Praful Patel or Sunil Tatkare cannot realistically run the NCP. They may at best serve as interim arrangements, but they will not be accepted as long term leaders by the wider party. The permanent leadership, when it emerges, cannot be Sunetra Pawar. She may not even be willing to take that role. It will have to be Supriya Sule, not necessarily because she is the most formidable organisational leader, but because she is a Pawar. And as long as Sharad Pawar remains active, that surname alone will ensure acceptance among the rank and file.

 

The next and more consequential question is this. Who will the NCP finally align with? The NCP is a party that has never been comfortable staying out of power for long. It has consistently valued political relevance and authority over rigid ideology. If the current situation remains unchanged, the most likely outcome is a merger of the two NCP factions, with Supriya Sule leading the party in alliance with the NDA at the Centre and the Mahayuti in Maharashtra.

 

Will this erode the NCP’s secular vote base? The answer is yes, particularly in western Maharashtra. Will it help the Congress reclaim voters it lost when Sharad Pawar split the party in 1999 to form the NCP? Again, yes. Congress will benefit. But will this realignment help Supriya Sule consolidate control over her party? That answer too is in the affirmative.

 

For Sharad Pawar, the options are now extremely limited. For the sake of his daughter’s political future, he may have little choice but to reunite the NCP and support the Mahayuti and the NDA. The only exception would be a highly unlikely scenario in which the BJP faces ideological resistance from the RSS over accepting additional support from a united NCP. That possibility, however, appears remote.

 

And finally, a hard truth. For the NCP, joining the BJP led Mahayuti may well mark the beginning of the end. The end of Pawar supremacy. The erosion of political identity. The loss of independence. Possibly even the end of a distinct future. Sharad Pawar understands this better than anyone. But understanding a reality does not always mean having the power to escape it.

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