With total 312 MLAs, BJP can easily send eight candidates to Rajya Sabha from the state of Uttar Pradesh. However, BJP will still have 28 votes left.
In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to power winning 282 seats. However, the party still lacked the numbers in Rajya Sabha. However, BJP’s win in the consequent assembly elections has given them a chance to increase their numbers in the Upper House of the parliament as well.
Recently, the party announced its list of candidates for Rajya Sabha polls. Total 58 seats from 16 states and a by-election for 1 seat from Kerala will be held on March 23, 2018. However, the most number of seats (10) being vacated are from Uttar Pradesh.
While for Congress, SP and BSP the Rajya Sabha elections are crucial to maintaining their presence in the Upper House; BJP has hit a masterstroke by fielding one more candidate leaving the opposition startled.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly numbers:
The Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections conducted in 2017 were swept by the saffron party. Going beyond the magic figure, the BJP won total 312 seats in the 403 seat assembly. The SP emerged second winning 47 seats, while BSP had to be satisfied with only 19 seats. Congress couldn’t even reach the two-digit number and won only seven seats. While Rashtriya Lok Dal won only one seat, independent candidates grabbed three seats.
Rajya Sabha seat calculation:
Uttar Pradesh, being the biggest and most populous state in the country has 31 seat representation in Rajya Sabha. For a candidate to win, 37 preferential votes from the MLAs are needed. This year, the term of as much as 10 members is coming to an end. The retiring members include Naresh Agarwal who recently dumped SP and joined BJP, Munquad Ali, Jaya Bachchan, BJP’s Vinay Katiyar, Kiranmay Nanda, Alok Tiwari, Pramod Tiwari, Darshan Singh Yadav and Munvvar Saleem Choudhury.
भाजपा प्रदेश अध्यक्ष डॉ. महेंद्र नाथ पाण्डेय, उप मुख्यमंत्री द्वय श्री केशव प्रसाद मौर्य व डॉ. दिनेश शर्मा के साथ सभी प्रत्याशियों ने राज्यसभा के लिए नामांकन दाखिल किया। pic.twitter.com/zeCqeF0G8m
— BJP Uttar Pradesh (@BJP4UP) March 12, 2018
BJP has currently fielded 11 candidates including Finance Minister Arun Jaitley while SP has fielded Jaya Bachchan and BSP has fielded Bhimrao Ambedkar. With one independent candidate filing nominations for Rajya Sabha polls, the total number of candidates in the fray has gone up to 14.
Current Equation:
Here it is important to understand the number game. With total 312 MLAs, BJP can easily send eight candidates to Rajya Sabha. However, BJP will still have 28 votes left. With 46 votes remaining after the exit of Nitin Agarwal, SP can elect one candidate to Rajyasabha. It will have nine more votes remaining. BSP, on the other hand, still needs to gather support. The pre-poll alliance between the arch-rivals BSP and SP for Rajya Sabha election stemmed from this need. Congress has already declared its support to BSP’s candidate.
With SP’s nine, Congress’ seven and 19 votes from the own party MLAs, the BSP is able to achieve 35 votes, still two votes less than the required. For this, BSP may turn to small parties like RLD and independents.
However, with BJP fielding three more candidates, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samajwadi Party are clearly baffled. BJP is also pinning hopes on Naresh Agarwal to bring the votes of more 10-15 MLAs. This would clearly reduce both BSP and SP’s chances of winning.
Here’s the list of BJP’s 11 candidates:
The last day for filing of nominations was Monday. March 15 is the last date for withdrawal of candidature.
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