Chief ministerial ambitions of powerful minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, if not handled carefully, could spoil the BJP’s party in the poll-bound state.
The BJP might be claiming it will retain power in Assam but the Congress-led Grand Alliance and public sentiment against the Citizenship Amendment Act could mar the saffron party’s poll prospects.
Elections for the 126-member house are due in March-April 2021.
The Congress, which fought the 2016 assembly polls alone, thinks an alliance with perfume baron turned politician Badruddin Ajmal’s All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Left parties can present a formidable challenge to the ruling BJP-led combine, which faced flak over the contentious citizenship law during 2019 and 2020.
The anti-CAA protests gave birth to a host of new parties that are now aiming to channelize public anger against the saffron party.
Besides, chief ministerial ambitions of powerful minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, if not handled carefully, could spoil the BJP’s party in the poll-bound state.
Sarma, a former Congressman, was the key architect of BJP’s 2016 Assam win but is reportedly miffed at not being named the chief ministerial nominee this time.
The BJP emerged the single-largest party with 60 seats, Asom Gana Parishad 14, Bodoland People’s Front 12, Congress 26 and AIUDF 14. The BJP had a pact with AGP and BPF among others.
This time the Congress plans to counter the ruling combine with an alliance. But is the grand old party prepared for the big battle?
The Congress, which ruled Assam from 2001 to 2016 under former chief minister Tarun Gogoi, is virtually faceless after the stalwart passed away on November 23, 2020 due to Covid-19.
Tarun Gogoi’s son Gaurav Gogoi, a Lok Sabha member and former union minister Santosh Mohan Dev’s daughter Sushmita Dev are both promising leaders but lack a pan-state influence.
The state unit is a divided house with rivals pressing for the removal of Pradesh Congress Committee chief Ripun Bora amid apprehensions that several senior leaders may soon switch loyalties on the lines of MLAs Ajanta Neog and Rajdeep Gowala, who joined the BJP on Dec 29.
In 2015, Himanta Biswa Sarma had delivered a blow to the Congress when he led 9 other MLAs to join the saffron party.
Speculation over a Congress-AIUDF pact started when Tarun Gogoi and Badruddin Ajmal were spotted holding hands after they jointly backed journalist Ajit Bhuyan’s candidature for the Rajya Sabha polls early 2020.
Ripun Bora has been pushing for a pact with Ajmal but several state leaders want more discussion on the issue. Some Congress managers fear that given Ajmal’s largely Bengali- speaking Muslim support base, joining hands with AIUDF could polarize the voters and indirectly help the BJP.
Those who favour the pact argue that AIUDF has influence in around 45 assembly seats while the Left parties have an edge in as many as seven seats. Muslims constitute 35 percent of Assam’s population.
To add to the confusion, central Congress leaders too have advised the state unit to avoid discussing the alliance in public. It would only serve the opposition to resolve the issue as early as possible.
Politics over CAA
Assam had been rocked by a spate of anti-CAA protests in 2019 and early 2020 causing much concern among the BJP-led ruling combine.
While it is difficult to estimate the damage that the anti-CAA sentiment can do to the BJP, the emotive issue has given hope to several new players like the Assam Jatiya Parishad, backed the All-Assam Students Union (AASU) and the Assam Jatiyabadi Yuba Chhatra Parishad, the Raijor Dal, backed by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS), activist Akhil Gogoi and 70 ethnic groups and the Anchalik Gana Morcha, floated by Ajit Bhuyan.
The emergence of these new parties, which plan to put the BJP on the defensive over the CAA issue, indicates that politics over the indigenous Assamese versus the illegal immigrants (from Bangladesh) issue is a key concern among the Assam voters that may get reflected when the ballots are cast.
The genesis of the problem goes to the Supreme Court ordered National Register of Citizens (NRC) which left out 19 lakh persons, including over 10 lakh Hindus, in Assam in 2019.
In 2016, the BJP had backed the NRC which won it support from the Assamese communities. But the saffron party had to change its stance later after it realized that lakhs of Hindus, who form its core supporters, had been excluded.
The CAA, which followed the NRC, was meant to accommodate the illegal immigrant Bengali Hindus coming from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan and help the BJP address the NRC anomaly. However, the move backfired and led to state-wide anti-CAA protests.
The Assamese communities, who have abhorred an influx of outsiders for decades, prefer the 1985 Assam Accord, in which the cut-off date for regularization of illegal immigrants is March 24, 1971, over the CAA, in which the cut-off date is December 31, 2014.
For many, the CAA was an act of betrayal. The sentiment showed in the Chhatra Mukti Sangram Samithi, the student wing of the KMSS, observing Dec 24-31, 2020 as an anti-CAA week to coincide with union home minister Amit Shah’s visit on Dec 26.
On its part, the BJP is citing the recent Bodoland Territorial Council polls, where its tally went up from 1 seat in 2016 to 9 and Tiwa Autonomous Council elections, where its numbers increased from 3 seats in 2016 to 33, to claim that the saffron party has covered much of lost ground since the anti-CAA stir.
Interestingly, the BJP dropped BPF as an ally in the BTC and supported the United People’s Party Liberal whose leader became the chief executive officer indicating new equations in the offing.
The BJP’s rivals allege the ruling party is worried over the impact of anti-CAA sentiment and is, therefore, trying to convert the Assamese versus the illegal immigrant tussle into a communal issue. They cite two incidents to support their charge.
Early November Himanta Sarma tweeted about AIUDF supporters greeting Ajmal at Silchar airport with slogans like “Pakistan Zindabad” but the news could never be confirmed.
Look at the brazenness of these fundamentalists anti-national people who are shouting PAKISTAN ZINDABAD while they welcome MP @BadruddinAjmal.
This thoroughly exposes @INCIndia which is encouraging such forces by forging an alliance. We shall fight them tooth & nail. Jai Hind pic.twitter.com/CiHZjDweFF
— Himanta Biswa Sarma (@himantabiswa) November 6, 2020
A new Bill to end government-run Madrasas and convert them into regular schools is another example.
At the same time, the BJP is giving grants to around 8,000 Naamghars, traditional Vaishnavite prayer houses, to revive the Bhakti movement that can supposedly stamp out armed movements in the state.
Beyond all this, managing Himanta Sarma could prove tricky for the BJP. Sarma had hoped that a win for the saffron party in 2016 would make him the chief minister but the top job went to then union minister Sarbananda Sonowal.
Sarma got key ministries and helped the BJP go beyond Assam. He tried to contest the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Tezpur but was convinced by PM Modi to focus on the region.
In August 2020, the wily politician surprised everyone by declaring he won’t contest the coming polls but will ensure a BJP win. While this may be a pressure tactic, there is no indication that Sarma might be named the CM nominee.
Amit Shah repeatedly referred to Sonowal-Sarma combo as he claimed a majority for the saffron party in 2021. But in case it is a hung house again and Sarma is not in a mood to cooperate, the BJP knows that Himanta da has the wherewithal to swing its fortunes the other way.
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