Is Opposition Sidelining The Congress?

At this moment, the opposition seems to be divided over whether to go with Congress or not to go with it. Will these differences be addressed before 2024 comes closer?

Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodiya’s arrest by CBI in the now-scrapped Delhi liquor policy case has once again sent alarm bells in the opposition.

As many as 8 opposition parties have written a letter addressing the Prime Minister condemning the “Blatant Misuse of Central agencies”. While several opposition parties have signed the letter, the biggest opposition party in the country- the congress has stayed away from it.

This detail did catch my attention. With just 1 year left for the 2024 General elections, there have been open calls for opposition unity, however, no concrete action is being taken in this regard. No party seems to be taking the first step.

On the other hand, congress has already cleared that if there has to be an opposition unity it should be under the leadership of Congress.

But some opposition parties seem to disagree. The letter is the latest example. Is there a crack in opposition even before they ever had a chance to come together? Why do some opposition parties want Congress out of the equation? And can 2024 opposition unity really happen? Let’s discuss this in the article.

On Sunday, 8 key opposition parties jointly wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi complaining about the center’s “blatant misuse of central agencies”. Nine leaders from these parties also signed the letter.

Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, West-Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and Delhi CM and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal,  National Conference’s Farooq Abdullah, Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, Sena’s Uddav Thackeray, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav were the leaders who signed the letter.

“We hope you would agree that India is still a democratic country. The blatant misuse of central agencies against the members of the opposition appears to suggest that we have transitioned from being a democracy to an autocracy,” the letter said.

“… After a long witch-hunt, Manish Sisodia was arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in connection with alleged irregularity without a shred of evidence against him,” the opposition leaders said in the letter to PM Modi.

“Out of the total number of key politicians booked, arrested, raided or interrogated by the investigation agencies under your administration since 2014, the maximum belongs to the opposition. Interestingly, investigation agencies go slow on cases against opposition politicians who join the BJP,” the letter said.

Today after Manish Sisodiya’s  CBI custody ended, and he is sent to 14 days of Judicial custody. The AAP has alleged that the BJP is using central institutions to intimidate the party leaders.

Well, this is not something new. In the past several opposition party leaders have also faced IT, CBI, or ED raids. From Shivsena(UBT’s) Thackeray, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, or Samajwadi Party leaders in UP. In the last few years, such actions have been common. And opposition parties even before this, have raised their voices against what they call targeted harassment of the opposition. So what’s new this time?

The one thing that stands out here is, that it is a letter by the joint opposition. But the biggest opposition party in the country, one which has been talking about the issue for a long- The Congress is missing from the list.

So the letter concerns the BJP less and the opposition the more. Is this crack within the opposition a sign of the times to come?

Well, everyone knows Congress and AAP’s warring history. We will not get into that. But AAP had some blistering comments on Congress not joining in the opposition effort.

AAP Spokesperson Saurabh Bharadwaj said, “Congress disappears when national issues are raised. Congress has never stood with the opposition, this has been its history. We have been hearing the BJP’s claim that they will put Rahul Gandhi and Robert Vadra in jail. This is just a war of words. Congress disappears when national issues are raised.

When asked about this the Congress spokesperson Supriya Srinate said that on Manish Sisodia the party’s stand is clear. They have accused the Modi govt of misusing Central agencies. But they also want a thorough investigation into the Delhi liquor policy scam.

So, one would understand from this, that while Opposition keeps talking of uniting to defeat BJP., there are many internal fissures within opposition parties. Much of which also have to do with the Congress.

Can Congress be the leader of the Joint Opposition?

Well, Congress which successfully led UPA, an alliance of like-minded parties from 2004-2014 is hoping to recreate the same ahead of the 2024 LS elections. And it also hopes to lead it. However, many regional parties do not seem to agree. TMC’s Mamata Banerjee had already opted out and declared that she will be contesting solo. SP’s Akhilesh Yadav too is not very keen on aligning with Congress. AAP and Congress have been at crossroads since before the inception of the party. TRS’ KCR too, is not in favour of aligning with Congress.

A few days back, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge in a tweet said that if there has to be a joint opposition, it has to be led by the Congress party. And he isn’t wrong. The only party other than BJP, which has a nationwide presence from Kashmir to Kanyakumari is Congress. In the 2019 Loksabha election, Congress won 52 seats, and a vote share of 19.46% Vote share of the rest of the opposition parties individually was in the single digits.

So when we see the whole picture, numerically Congress is the biggest opposition party. So any opposition without Congress may not succeed.

But even then some opposition parties, especially those which are led by strong opposition leaders are reluctant to go with Congress. Why?

For this, we have to break down the picture. Let’s go statewise. Except for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal, and Chhattisgarh, which are the states where Congress is strong enough to compete with BJP? The states I named are those states where only these two national parties dominate the discourse. But look at other states: West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is stronger opposition to BJP than Congress, She won the 2021 Assembly election without Congress support. Uttar Pradesh: Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav made an alliance with Congress in 2017 and it failed miserably. Since then, Akhilesh Yadav too is cautious about joining hands with Congress.

In Telangana, Naturally, Congress is opposition to TRS and KCR. Then getting the party together nationally, is very difficult. In Maharashtra, the party has been pushed to fourth rank in terms of seats. There are a total of 4033 MLAs in the country, of which 658 are the Congress. In the last 8 years, the number of Congress MLAs in the country has reduced from 24% to 16%. In five states, the party has no MLA. There are less than 10 legislators in 9 states.

So aligning with a party, reducing footprint, and allotting them seats in seat sharing formula may mean less seats with winning possibility with stronger regional opposition parties.

Secondly, the leadership crisis. These small but strong regional parties also have strong leaders. Strong party chiefs. As opposed to Congress, whose leadership has been touted as weak and indecisive. With Mallikarjun Kharge as head, Congress hopes to change this perception, but Gandhis being the High Command in the party, this becomes quite difficult. Many opposition leaders may not accept the leadership of Gandhi.

Thirdly, there also might be fear, fear of doubling down of pressure by the BJP. The parties are already accusing the Modi govt of misusing Central agencies. They might fear, that in case there’s a whiff of larger opposition unity or joining hands with Congress, the action from Central agencies will double. That is any possibility of Congress getting stronger with alliances, will also invite wrath for the parties aligning with Congress.

That is why Many opposition parties may not want to align with Congress. But there are few that belief defeating BJP is not possible without Congress’ active participation in the alliance. This includes JDU’s, Nitish Kumar. DMK’s MK Stalin, both of whom have also not signed the letter. So, Congress does have regional friends, but they are few.

At this moment, the opposition seems to be divided over whether to go with Congress or not to go with it. Will these differences be addressed before 2024 comes closer?