The states where there was a direct contest between Congress and BJP, the latter has emerged victorious. However, in a case of tri-cornered contests, Regional Parties overpowered the BJP.
The summer of 2018 was quite heated for the Indian political plethora as four Lok Sabha 10 Assembly Seats across the country went for by-polls. With the 2019 Lok Sabha election just a year away, the by-polls turned into a prestige battle for the political parties. Especially for the ruling BJP, which had lost the crucial Gorakhpur and Phulpur by-polls, it was necessary to register a victory trail. However, the party received a humiliating defeat in 11 out of 14 seats that went for by-polls. The results of these recently concluded by-polls come with a message and a warning: The message-2019 elections will not be a cakewalk for BJP and the warning- Congress isn’t the main enemy, the regional parties are.
The rise of Regional Parties:
The last two decades saw a steady growth in the vote share and performance of regional parties of India. The parties are not only confined to the state elections but also influence the larger picture-national politics. In the last four years, the state elections have shown a remarkable trend regarding the regional parties.
After the 2014 Lok Sabha Election, assembly elections were conducted in 20 states. While 11 states were won by BJP (Assam, Goa, Haryana, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Manipur, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand); J&K, Meghalaya, and Nagaland were won by NDA partners. Remaining six states- Bihar, Delhi, Kerala, West Bengal, Karnataka, and Punjab are won by opposition parties.
It must be noted that except for Punjab all the states where there was a direct contest between Congress and BJP, the latter has emerged victorious. On the other hand, all the state Assembly elections the BJP lost, are at the hands of regional parties.
The By-poll result takeaway:
The by-poll result just confirms this analysis. In Gorakhpur, earlier this year, the arch-rivals SP-BSP came together and defeated BJP in its home turf, Gorakhpur, and Phulpur. The victory of Tabassum Hasan of RLD in Kairana further consolidates BJP’s fear. In Karnataka, the Congress-JD(S) came together to form the government with JD(S) chief HD Kumaraswamy as the CM.
The BJP might have received the absolute majority in 2014, but it cannot be in a delusion that it will achieve same numbers in 2019. The opposition has set wheels in motion with accelerating the talks of opposition front. However, this coalition will have a greater role of regional parties than that of Congress.
If BJP has to win, it needs Congress:
It is usually said that “You should keep your friends close and enemies even closer”. Putting it in a political context, the allies are important for a party but so are the opposition parties. In fact, the very important lesson in politics is to understand that it is the existence of opposition party that fuels and accelerates a party’s campaign. For example, it is the Congress’ rule (misrule) of 10 years that fuelled BJP’s 2014 mega campaign of “Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkar”.
For BJP, fighting against Congress is slightly easier than fighting the numerous regional parties. When contesting directly against Congress, BJP can work on one larger narrative to take on Congress. However, for regional parties, the BJP will have to draw different narratives and different strategies each time. In some southern and north-eastern states, the BJP has no presence. In such case, regional parties can easily overpower BJP.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been campaigning to disseminate the opposition completely with his slogan “Congress-mukt Bharat”. But the fact is, the BJP’s victory streaks are more likely if the Congress as opposition survives.
Though a little late, BJP has understood that fighting regional parties will be the death knell for the party in 2019 elections. Not only will it affect the numbers but with NDA allies turning back to BJP, it will also cost BJP the opportunity to form the government.
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