Akhilesh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee have already expressed their reservation about making Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister. The message is clear- If Rahul Gandhi is to be the PM candidate, their parties will not be the part of the coalition.
The swearing-in of Karnataka’s 24th Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy concluded yesterday. However, as yesterday’s article “Is opposition’s display of strength a trailer of 2019?” points out; the large-scale celebration was less about the swearing-in and more about the newfound opposition unity. Be it Sitaram Yechury shaking hands with their rival in West Bengal Mamata Banerjee or Sonia Gandhi giving a hug to Mayawati, the celebratory mood was evident that the opposition leaders are ready to shed their differences and come together to take on BJP. The Congress in this entire scenario is emerging as a mediator.
Congress’ role in Karnataka:
Congress which swept the previous Karnataka polls of 2013 with the absolute majority was reduced to 78 seats this time. However, taking the lessons from the Goa and Manipur poll incidents Congress set the wheels in motion immediately on the vote counting day. Reportedly, Sonia Gandhi herself called JD(S) patron HD Deve Gowda proposing a post-poll alliance. However, the bitter history between Deve Gowda and its CM candidate Siddaramaiah (former JDS leader who joined Congress after a bitter fall-out with Gowda family) was still an issue. The Congress in a bid to defend one of its last-standing bastions put its entire weight behind Siddaramaiah. So much so that during the campaigning Congress President Rahul Gandhi even slammed JDS calling it BJP’s B-team.
However, it knew that JDS will never agree to the post-poll alliance with Siddaramaiah as the Chief Minister. The Congress feared that if it does not play its card quickly, Kumaraswamy might consider an alliance with BJP. Thus, it proposed an offer JDS could not turn down i.e. Chief Ministerial post to Kumaraswamy. The alliance fought the BJP from in front of Governor to Supreme Court and overpowered BJP in terms of numbers. The Congress did everything, from moving the Congress- JDS MLAs to resorts in Hyderabad to releasing the alleged audiotapes of BJP leaders indulging in horse-trading. It was hailed as a victory when BS Yeddyurappa resigned from the CM post even before the floor-test.
The key takeaway from all these incidents remains the fact that Congress which emerged bigger than that of JDS was ready to compromise the CM seat to keep the BJP out of the government. Perhaps, Congress’ strategy was never to win the election but to keep the BJP out.
The quest for 2019:
Well, now that the strategy worked quite well in Karnataka, the Congress might as well apply it during Lok Sabha election next year. Considering the current standing of the parties in Lok Sabha, the United Opposition holds about 141 seats as against 272 of BJP. With the new coalitions coming to the picture, the number may also show an upward swing.
However, it is important to understand that Congress is the only party with the bigger share in Lok Sabha and widespread national presence in the opposition coalition. Congress well realizes that if it does not get the majority the opposition coalition will play a crucial role in keeping the BJP out. In such case, to keep the opposition coalition intact it might have to compromise on the post of Prime Minister.
Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister:
Often, Congress is asked whether Congress President Rahul Gandhi will be the party’s Prime Ministerial face for 2019. The party, however, has chosen to not reveal its plans. Though answering a question from the audience in Bengaluru Rahul Gandhi had once said that he would like to be the Prime Minister of the country, the party hasn’t issued any official confirmation in this regard. The Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee have already expressed their reservation about making Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister. The message is clear-if Rahul Gandhi is to be the PM candidate, the parties will not be the part of the coalition. Losing the parties who have a strong hold over two of the crucial states will not only crumble the opposition unity but also cost Congress the numbers. The party is also not unaware of the internal discontent on this issue.
Talking about the same to HW News, one of the senior leaders of Maharashtra Congress asked, “who can be the PM candidate other than Rahul Gandhi?” “It is a fact that party has to project a face that will pull the crowd. But when did the party say that Congress President will become Prime Minister?” he said adding, “This is all speculations.”
From the post-poll equations in Karnataka, it is certain that the Congress-JD(S) coalition is at present the priority of the Congress rather than the post of head of the state. In case the opposition coalition wins 2019, it will be interesting to see who becomes Prime Minister; but certainly, it will not be Rahul Gandhi.
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