Karnataka Floor test: Four ways by which BJP can prove majority

The drama in the state of Karnataka seems to have come to a definitive stage today with Supreme Court sending out a crucial verdict on a petition filed by Senior Congress leader and lawyer Abhishek Manu Singhvi. The Supreme Court in its order asked the pro tem speaker to conduct a floor test on Saturday at 4 PM. The order comes in the wake of 15 days period granted by the Karnataka governor to the BJP to prove the majority. Now, the BJP spearheaded by Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa has o go on the floor of the Vidhan Soudha and prove its majority.

However, the task is not easy as it seems. The May 15th results of Karnataka Assembly established the BJP as the Single Largest Party with 104 seats but the numbers are far from the magic figure of 112. The Congress and JD(S) on the other hand have 116 seats which are above the majority mark. Even with the support of the only winning independent candidate, the BJP cannot touch the mark of 112. Faced with this challenge, BJP has 4 ways to prove majority in the house. Let us discuss the ways one by one.

Though ideally speaking, the magic figure is 112; inside the assembly, the majority is counted on the basis of actual members present in the house at the time of floor test. For example, if there are 200 MLAs present in the house, the majority mark comes down to 101. In the current scenario, BJP will need at least 12 Congress-JD(S) MLAs to mark their absence to the assembly. However, this seems highly unlikely as Congress and JD(S) have already scurried their MLAs to Hyderabad fearing the horse-trading by BJP. The MLAs will be brought back to Bangalore before the floor test. As a cautious move, the parties have also issued a whip to their MLAs.

Even if the absence of as much as 12 Congress-JD(S) MLAs seems difficult, the BJP still stands a chance to prove majority if at least 12 MLAs abstain from voting. This means that the MLAs come to the assembly but opt for not being a part of the floor test. While abstaining is not punishable under the parliamentary rules and regulations, the party from which thee MLAs belong may take disciplinary action on them.

This is the strongest possibility among all the three. The BJP has already said that it is in talks with over a dozen lingayat leaders from Congress. Reportedly, the BJP also offered the JD(S) chief HD Kumaraswamy Deputy CM post if he supports BJP. So, even if at least eight leaders from Congress-JD(S) camp vote in favor of BJP during floor test, the party can establish the majority.

However, this will invite anti-defection law to come into force and the membership of the MLAs from the house will be terminated.

This is the technique, BJP has used before to lure the opponent MLAs with money and muscle power. Apparently, in 2008, the BJP successfully turned 20 JD(S) and Congress MLAs to their side. But to escape the anti-defection law, the BJP made them resign from their respective parties. This necessitated the by-polls which in turn were vigorously fought by the BJP. The BJP went on to win the most of these re-contested seats and formed the government in the state.

There is a strong speculation that the saffron party might repeat this age-old tactic to prove majority.

The Karnataka drama has now come to the last phase. Though some of the above tactics are virtually unethical, as the Supreme Court itself observed, “It’s just a number game and those who enjoy the majority get to form the government”.