The opposition had got a mascot in Mamata, who has always harboured a desire to anchor a national anti-BJP front, much to the dislike of the Congress.
As expected, the 2021 West Bengal assembly results have started a churn within the opposition parties who now want to replicate Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s impressive victory against PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah across the country in the 2024 national elections.
Though a pre-poll opposition alliance had defeated the BJP earlier in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections and later a post-poll pact in 2019 could keep the saffron party at bay in Maharashtra, the West Bengal assembly elections had become a prestige issue between the Modi-Shah duo and Mamata Banerjee.
While Mamata was weighed down by the two-term anti-incumbency and large-scale defections from the TMC, the repeated claims of PM and Union home minister that the BJP was sweeping the polls with over 200 of the total 294 seats and the huge resources mobilized by the saffron party, made everyone sit up and wait for the outcome on May 2.
Mamata not only managed to turn the tables single-handedly winning 213 seats, she could contain the BJP to just 77 seats. The results stunned the saffron party and took a while to sink in.
The opposition had got a mascot in Mamata, who has always harboured a desire to anchor a national anti-BJP front, much to the dislike of the Congress.
Since May 2, sufficient hints have been dropped both by Banerjee and the Shiv Sena that a realignment of political forces at the national level is on the cards.
Speaking to the media after her win, Mamata referred to setting up a working group to take opposition unity ahead. Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut was more explicit when he announced that talks for a national alliance will begin soon.
The plan obviously has the blessings of Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, who was the key architect of the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance in Maharashtra in 2019 to keep the BJP out of power.
But that was easier said than done. Though the Shiv Sena had parted ways with the BJP after long years of association, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi had doubts over the regional party’s secular credentials and gave a go ahead only after a common agenda for governance had been worked out.
Before the West Bengal assembly polls, Mamata had sought Pawar’s help when a row erupted with the Centre over deputation of three IPS officers. The NCP chief had backed Banerjee and urged her to take lead in forging an anti-BJP front.
During the campaign, while Mamata repeatedly attacked Modi, Trinamool Congress’ Lok Sabha MP Mahua Moitra warned the PM to be prepared to face Banerjee in his parliamentary constituency Varanasi in 2024.
The remark was not a casual challenge thrown at Modi but part of a plan.
The Congress managers have long feared the national ambitions of Mamata and the grand old party’s poor performance in the recent four state polls, including a rout in West Bengal, has only added to their anxiety.
Over the past five years, Mamata lured away several Congress leaders and lawmakers in a bid to weaken the grand old party.
In any renewed discussion around an opposition anchor role, the focus automatically shifts to Mamata though the Congress managers would any day prefer to reserve that slot for former party chief Rahul Gandhi, who has been equally consistent in taking on the Modi-Shah duo.
What appears to be going in Mamata’s favour is her image as a street fighter, her significant administrative experience, both at the central and as CM, and her latest electoral feat while Rahul’s record in these areas can’t match up to the TMC boss.
But it is also true that TMC is a regional giant and the Congress is the only national party among the opposition grouping.
Most regional leaders, who hailed Mamata’s win, understand this fact and factor it in whenever making references to the larger opposition unity.
Shiv Sena’s Raut too noted that Congress is a pan-India party, whether in power or not, and will be the soul of any opposition alliance nationally.
He cited the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi model to point out that the leadership issue among any future opposition alliance can be decided through consultations.
The BJP too has realized that it needs to worry more about a hurt Bengal Tigress than the Congress and therefore will try every bit that the road ahead for Banerjee is not smooth.
Mamata’s third term as chief minister will require a lot of hard work in governing a polarized state and keeping an aggressive BJP in the opposition under control.
One of the reasons why the BJP’s support base grew in the eastern state was that the saffron party readily took up battles against the ruling TMC unlike the Left Front, whose voters have shifted to the saffron party.
The bitterness that developed between Mamata and the Modi-Shah duo over the past years is only going to worsen given the serious setback the BJP’s top leadership has suffered in West Bengal.
In a deft move, the BJP has named Mamata’s key aide turned rival Suvendu Adhikari as Leader of the Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly.
Suvendu, who knows Mamata’s style of functioning and has been a TMC insider, is expected to keep her government on the tenterhooks though Banerjee sits comfortably in the House with 213/294 lawmakers.
On his part, Governor Jagdeep Dhankhar, who never enjoyed a good working relationship with Mamata, too will keep a close eye on the Banerjee administration.
For good measure, Mamata’s win has raised the hopes of the opposition grouping but together the parties need to work hard in a spirit of give and take and draft a common agenda to come together on a single national platform against the BJP.
The TMC is in top gear and other regional parties are charged up to take on the saffron party but the opposition grouping will have to create a momentum on the ground and sustain it till the next Lok Sabha elections which are a good three years away.
What the other opposition parties are able to achieve will be known in the months to come but much of how an anti-BJP grouping would shape up will depend on the way the Congress conducts itself.
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