Connect with us

Opinion

Sri Lanka crisis: Is the country on brink of another civil war?

Arti Ghargi

Published

on

sri lanka

The tussle between Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksha has thrown Sri Lanka in a political, constitutional and economic crisis.

 

On the eve of October 26, the island nation of Shri Lanka witnessed an unprecedented development. In a dramatic sequence of events, Shri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena appointed former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister of the nation while the ousted Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was on a tour of southern Shri Lanka. The live broadcast of President Sirisena swearing-in the new Prime Minister Rajapaksha in a show of power was no less than a high-pitch political drama potent of unsettling the geopolitics of South-east Asia. Rajapaksa was sworn in at about 7 p.m. in the presence of the representatives of the navy, air force and army who stood in the room and quietly watch the hasty ceremony unfold.

The situation in Sri Lanka, now widely regarded as a “major constitutional crisis”, has been since deteriorating. Many cabinet ministers strongly objected to the President’s decision to appoint new Prime Minister as an “undemocratic coup”. Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera tweeted that Mr Rajapaksa’s appointment was “unconstitutional and illegal. This is an anti-democratic coup.”

On the other hand, Wickremesinghe has refused to budge and step down from the post of Prime Minister. He addressed the media in Colombo, a few hours after Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as Prime Minister and declared that he is still the Prime Minister of the country.  “Since I have a majority I remain as the Prime Minister and I will function as the Prime Minister,” he said.

Meanwhile, as the news spread the protestors stormed the nation’s capital. The supporters of both leaders Rajapaksha and Wickremesinghe staged a protest against each other in a display of power. The tension escalated on Sunday as one person was killed by the bodyguard of the Petroleum Minister Arjun Ranatunga after a scuffle broke out between Ranatunga’s security personnel and the supporters of Rajapaksha who tried to lay a siege at his office building.

With the suspension of the parliament by President Sirisena until November 16, the chances of restoring political stability in the country soon are bleak.

Why did President Sirisena unseat Wickremesinghe?

A day after swearing-in the Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister, President Sirisena conducted a televised address justifying his act. He said that in the wake of recent political developments the only alternative he was left with to establish a new government was to appoint Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister.

Sirisena blamed the political crisis on Ranil Wickremesinghe’s “stubborn decisions” and the fundamental differences between him and Wickremesinghe. “There was also a policy conflict between Hon. Ranil Wickremesinghe and me, during the last three and a half years. Apart from policy differences, I noted that there were also differences of culture between Mr Wickremesinghe and me. I believe that all those differences in policy, culture, personality and conduct aggravated this political and economic crisis,” he said.

Sri lanka

Image source: Web

Defending his decision as “constitutional”, Sirisena said that the appointment of Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister was totally in accordance with the Constitution and on the advice of legal experts. He further blamed Wickremesinghe’s lackadaisical approach towards an investigation into the plot to assassinate the President for his decision to unseat him. “Under these political problems, economic troubles and the strong plot to assassinate me, the only alternative open to me was to invite former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and appoint him as Prime Minister to form a new government,” Sirisena clarified.

Interestingly, during the Presidential election in 2015, Sirisena had sought the support of political rival Wickremesinghe’s UNP to contest election against Mahinda Rajapaksa. Sirisena had held a cabinet berth in Rajapaksha’s government that lasted for 10 years.

What does the Sri Lankan constitution say?

While Sirisena calls the move completely “in accordance with the constitution”, his opponents and media outlets have constantly highlighted that his act is anti-constitution. Sirisena has pointed to another constitutional article that allows the president to appoint as prime minister any MP who, “in the president’s opinion”, is most likely to command the confidence of parliament.

Sri Lanka

However, the Wickremesinghe faction has pointed out to the 2015 amendment which prevented the president from sacking any prime minister unless they had died, resigned or lost the confidence of parliament. The Article 46 (2) of the 19th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution cites, the Prime Minister continues to hold office — throughout the period during which the Cabinet of Ministers continues to function under the provisions of the Constitution — unless he: (a) resigns by writing or, (b) ceases to be a Member of Parliament.

What is the road ahead for the crisis?

The ride to the solution of the Sri Lankan crisis seems a turbulent one. Whether the appointment of Rajapaksha was constitutional or not has to be decided by the Supreme Court of Sri Lanka. However, the courts in Sri Lanka are considered to be politically influenced. Additionally, a case is yet to be brought before the apex court.

Sri lanka

Clashes break out between security forces and protestors. (Image Source: Web)

Another way to end the crisis is ascertaining who exactly is the Prime Minister of the country by holding a vote of confidence in the parliament. Wickremesinghe undoubtedly holds a majority in the parliament. However, he is seven short of the magic number. On the other hand, Sirisena and Rajapaksha faction even considered together fall way short of the required number. This is also why; Sirisena may have decided to suspend the parliament working by November 16. This may provide Rajapaksha with the necessary time to convince the MPs to support him. The ruling coalition United National Front allies have already expressed their support to Wickremesinghe excluding Sirisena’s party. Reportedly, two MPs have defected to Srisena-Rajapaksha so far.

Meanwhile, Mahinda Rajapaksa has said that he will start occupying PM office from today. He is also expected to appoint his own cabinet.

On a brink of another civil war?

It has been just a decade since the civil war in Sri Lanka came to an end. The government declared the defeat of LTTE and establishment of peace in conflict areas. The political and constitutional crisis the country is facing right now can perilously snowball in a civil war if it is not addressed in time. The speaker of the Parliament Karu Jayasuriya warned today that the power vacuum at the centre is dangerous and can turn into a “bloodbath”. He said, “We should settle this through parliament, but if we take it out to the streets, there will be a huge bloodbath.”

Sri lanka

Image Source: Web

The political turbulence has already led to clashes in the capital which have already claimed one life. The citizens are uncertain who among the two their Prime Minister is while both claims to be one. The political crisis has also affected the markets. As reported by Bloomberg, Sri Lanka’s 6.75 per cent 2028 dollar bonds fell 3 cents to a record low of 87.8 cents on the dollar, the most since the debt was sold in April, and the rupee slid 0.7 per cent to a lifetime low of 174.15 per dollar.

The power struggle between Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksha has thrown the country in a crisis on political, constitutional and economic fronts. With the politicians openly warning of “bloodbath”, Sri Lanka seems to be on the brink of another civil war. It is up to the three political leaders to prevent it.

Opinion

Why Congress’ strategy to keep everyone guessing in Rajasthan will work?

Arti Ghargi

Published

on

rajasthan

Congress has very strong chances of lifting the trophy in Rajasthan. However, the dilemma is who will lift it? Gehlot or Pilot?

 

“I will contest the Assembly elections following the Aadesh (order) of Congress president Rahul Gandhi and on the Nivedan (request) of Ashok Gehlot,” uttered Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee chief Sachin Pilot. He was talking at a Press Conference in Rajasthan. The Press briefing that was called to welcome Bharatiya Janata Party MP Harish Meena into the Congress fold soon turned into an event of a confrontation.

Moments before Pilot’s humble but near sarcastic acceptance of him contesting the election, it was AICC general secretary and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot who announced that both he and Sachin Pilot would be contesting the upcoming assembly election. It is not new for the Rajasthan Congress heavyweights to be asked about the infighting within the state unit. The leaders have been denying it for quite a sometime.

Rajasthan

Image Source: Web

On Wednesday, when Gehlot was asked about it, he said, “Reports about infighting in the Congress have been in circulation for some time now. This is a BJP conspiracy.” He announced, “The Congress in Rajasthan is united and both Sachin and I will contest the election unitedly.” The authoritarian tone of the statement even surprised the State Congress Chief Sachin Pilot. However, the visibly startled Pilot soon regained control of the situation and said that he will contest election upon the orders of Rahul Gandhi and request of Ashok Gehlot.

Pilot and Gehlot both contesting the assembly election clearly mean that curtains will not be drawn on the debate of CM candidate soon. The infighting within the Rajasthan Congress between the Gehlot and Pilot faction is the major headache of the Congress which is hoping for a resurgence in the state election.

Rajasthan

Image Source: Web

Pilot vs Gehlot:

It was in September this year when during a press conference, Ashok Gehlot had said, “When the face has been in front of you for 10 years, where is the need of talking about a new face?” He was referring to his own 10 years of experience as Rajasthan CM. While Gehlot has been somewhat vocal about his aspiration to be the Rajasthan CM for the third time, Pilot has been tight-lipped about his ambitions. When he was asked the same question, he avoided the question by saying that he is not in the CM race and is “only working to ensure the party’s thumping victory”. However, the supporters of Sachin Pilot feel that he is the rightful contender of the CM throne.

However, both the leaders supposedly buried their differences and tried to contain the clash between their supporters. This was evident throughout the ‘Sankalp’ rallies organized by the party. A rally in Karauli- a tribal region of Rajasthan put to rest all the talks of differences within Congress state unit. Making their way through the sea of people spread over 20 km from the rally venue, both Gehlot and Pilot arrived on a bike. Sachin Pilot was riding the bike while Gehlot sat on the back seat. When they reached the venue, the party cadre even hailed then as “Jai-Veeru” of the state Congress. Not too long ago, both of them also were seen sharing the same bus seat during a campaign.

Rajasthan

Image Source: Web

Though the efforts have been made by the duo to show that Congress Unit is united, the underlying reality as everyone senses is that both Pilot and Gehlot are CM aspirants. Gehlot has a wealth of vast and diverse experience in active politics in his kitty. Since he was appointed as the AICC state in-charge during the Gujarat Assembly election, his stature in the party has only risen. He is now seen amongst the closes aides of Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

On the other hand, Sachin Pilot who is almost three decades younger than Gehlot has mobilization of grassroots workers to his credit. The two times MP, lost in 2014. But the party still handed over the reins of state Congress committee to him. Since the last five years, Pilot has been touring Rajasthan connecting with voters and workers alike. The young Turk comes as the fresh face among the veterans. He is quite popular among the youngsters of the state. Besides, he is a close friend of Rahul Gandhi.

 

Congress’ formula- Keep them guessing:

The anti-incumbency against BJP and Vasundhara Raje government is turning a boon for the Congress. The party has very strong chances of lifting the trophy in Rajasthan. However, the dilemma is who will lift it? Gehlot or Pilot? Both are strong contenders of the CM post. It is a difficult choice for Rahul Gandhi to make.

However, the party chose to douse the fire for now. Congress is best known for not announcing its CM candidate ahead of the election. Even in MP, the party has refrained from projecting a CM face between Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia. Announcing a CM face between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot would mean turning the supporters of these factions against each other.

Rajasthan

Image Source: Web

If the party announces Gehlot as its CM candidate, chances are young voters-supporters of Pilot would turn against Congress. Had it announced Pilot as the CM face, the veterans-supporters of Gehlot and senior party leaders would rebel. And no wise political leader would want a rebel in the poll-bound state party unit.

The Congress is keeping voters and party workers guessing. Surprisingly, as opposed to the argument that announcing a CM face will help driving a clear campaign, this formula seems to work for Congress. The idea is simple. Both the factions want to see their leader as the Chief Minister. Now that both Gehlot and Pilot are contesting, the supporters would put their best foot forward to ensure their leaders have an edge. Which, eventually will help the Congress party on a broader scale.

Rajasthan

Image Source: Web

With clearing the air around the Pilot and Gehlot contesting the elections, the Congress has doused the fire for now. But the real challenge will be faced by Rahul Gandhi in case the party wins the elections. While the temporary solution avoids a full-blown confrontation between the Gehlot-Pilot factions, he needs to work towards a middle way out.

Continue Reading

Opinion

How the deadly 2013 Maoist attack wiped out entire Congress leadership in Chhattisgarh

Arti Ghargi

Published

on

The deadly Darbha Valley attack by Maoists wiped out almost entire Congress leadership in the state of Chhattisgarh.

The campaigning for the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections first phase wound up today. The two primary political parties in the race fired stinging shots at each other on the last day of campaigning. While, Congress President Rahul Gandhi graced the battleground Chhattisgarh on the last day; from BJP, star campaigner UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and party president Amit Shah held the fort.

On Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed his first rally in the state in Jagdalpur.  Lashing out at the Congress, he said that the opposition Congress is trying to protect the ‘Urban Maoists’. “Urban Maoists live in air-conditioned surroundings, move in luxury cars and send their children to study abroad, but ruin the lives of children here. Naxalites kill our Jawans and Congress calls them revolutionaries,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The obvious reference was UP Congress chief Raj Babbar’s remark that Naxalites are revolutionaries who have lost the path.

Raj Babbar

Image Source: Web

For the BJP, which is battling anti-incumbency of 15 years in the state, this apparent gaffe by Congress leader came as a handy tool. Having known Prime Minister’s ability to set the narratives it wasn’t surprising that he decided to corner Congress on Babbar’s comment. In the past too, during Gujarat Elections, Mani Shankar Ayyar’s “Neech” comment was used by PM Modi against Congress.

Toeing his line, UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Party President Amit Shah continued hitting the raw nerve and attacking Congress over the issue. While talking to reporters Amit Shah said that Congress which calls Naxalites as revolutionaries cannot think of state’s development; Yogi Adityanath at a separate rally accused that Congress in the state fuelled Naxalism for its selfish motives.

As the tables seem to turn against Congress over the recent row, one must also recall the deadly Darbha Valley attack by Naxalites which wiped out almost entire Congress leadership in the state. Incidentally, the attack had happened a few kilometres away from Jagdalpur.

It was on May 25, 2013, a few days before the 2013 Chhattisgarh Assembly elections that the stalwarts of state Congress were killed in the Maoist attack. The attack caused the death of more than two dozen people of which twelve were Congress leaders and workers. The attack which was termed amongst the deadliest attack killed former state Minister Mahendra Karma, Chhattisgarh Congress chief Nand Kumar Patel and Vidya Charan Shukla a senior Congress leader who succumbed to his injuries two weeks later.

The attack was carried by the Maoists in response to the offensive launched by the UPA government to tackle the Maoist insurgency in the state. Enraged by the mobilisation of security forces in the region, Maoists continuously targeted police personnel and political leaders.

 

Darbha Valley attack:

On May 25, 2013 Leaders of the Congress party were carrying out a Parivartan Yatra in the state, with a convoy of 25 vehicles carrying around 200 Congress leaders and workers. They were returning from a meeting organised in Sukma. Congress was hoping to end the decade-long rule of BJP’s Raman Singh in the state with the crackdown of Naxalism as their main poll-plank. Senior Congress leader Mahendra Karma had even emerged as the prominent proponent of Anti-Naxal operation in the state. The Adivasi strongman from Bastar even launched Salwa Judum- a militia composed of tribal youths to counter the Naxal insurgency. His efforts were also supported by the Chhattisgarh government. Though his anti-Naxal efforts put him in the race of Chief Ministership, it also put him in the hit-list of Maoist.

Chhattisgarh

Image Source: Web

When the convoy of Congress leaders reached the deeply forested area of Dharba valley on Jagdalpur-Sukma Highway, it was blocked by trees felled by Maoists. The Maoists triggered an IED near the fourth vehicle in the convoy. As soon as vehicles slowed down, around 250 Maoists hiding in the adjoining hilltops of the Jeerum hills opened fire from both the sides. The personal security officers of the Congress leaders took positions and tried to defend them but the firing continued for over 90 minutes.

The Maoists waited for the PSOs to run out of ammunition before asking the Congress leaders to surrender. The Maoists, however, started firing indiscriminately when the Congress leaders emerged from their vehicles. The eyewitness said that when the Maoists struck, the mobile phones of all the leaders were also taken, as the attackers asked the names of the leaders, shooting some of them while leaving others alone.

chhattisgarh

Salwa Judum leader Mahendra Karma

In this attack, entire Congress leadership along with eight security personnel and CRPF soldiers were killed. Mahendra Karma who was on the hit list of Maoist was shot dead by 100 bullets and stabbed brutally 78 times. Congress leaders Nand Kumar and Dinesh Patel were also abducted. They were found dead a day later with several fatal injuries. Congress worker Yogendra Sharma was also killed.

 

Chhattisgarh Congress’ leadership crisis:

The first phase of the Chhattisgarh assembly election is to be held on November 12 in Bastar and other Naxal-affected areas of Chhattisgarh. Despite a strong anti-incumbency of fifteen years, Chief Minister Raman Singh is expected to gain an edge and retain his position.

Bhupesh Baghel

Image Source: Web

Congress, on the other hand, which lost out on the alliance with Mayawati’s BSP is still in a lurch of leadership that can take on Raman Singh. Since the attack wiped out some of the strongest leaders of the Congress, a party couldn’t develop even a single leader who can challenge Raman Singh’s legacy. Though in the last assembly elections, the difference between the vote share of Congress and BJP was just 0.7%, many polls have predicted it to be widening this time.

With the current leadership entangled in conflicts and controversies, the party may find it difficult to come to power despite favourable conditions.

 

Continue Reading

Opinion

Why Urjit Patel may not resign despite rift with Modi and Co.

Arti Ghargi

Published

on

urjit patel

If Urjit Patel would have resigned, the confidence of foreign investors in the Indian Economy would take a serious hit.

 

The shake-up in India’s apex financial institution RBI and the Modi government came to a defining turn on Wednesday as the reports expressing the possibility of RBI governor Urjit Patel stepping down started doing rounds. CNBC TV18 first reported that the RBI governor may consider resigning from the post as the split between the central bank and ruling Modi government became more apparent in the recent days.

The government and the RBI came to loggerheads after the deputy governor Viral Acharya hinted in a speech on Friday that the government is trying to hinder the independent working of the institution. Stressing on the importance of autonomy of the RBI, Acharya warned that undermining a central bank’s independence could be “potentially catastrophic”. His warning came amidst the reports that government is pressurising RBI to relax its policies and trying to reduce its powers.

RBI

Viral Acharya, RBI Dy Governor

In a speech to top industrialists, he even cited Argentina’s 2010 economic crisis as an example. Acharya recalled Argentine government’s meddling in its central bank’s affairs led to a surge in bond yields which in turn hurt the South American economy. Reportedly, the government officials were hurt that Viral Acharya chose to talk about the rift between the government and the central bank in public. Many also believe that the RBI governor Urjit Patel too, shares the same views as that of Acharya.

The spat became more public on Tuesday when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley blamed the institution for “lending spree” during UPA era. While speaking at an event in New Delhi, Jaitley said, “The central bank looked the other way when banks gave loans indiscriminately from 2008 to 2014.”

demonetisation

Image Source: Web

According to a CNBC TV18 report, a source said that there is an “irreversible breakdown between RBI governor and the government”. However, by afternoon the doubts surrounding Patel’s resignation were put to rest. RBI governor called for a board meeting on November 19 clearly indicating that there is no resignation on cards as of now. The Finance Ministry too issued an official statement for the first time to clear the air. “The autonomy of the central bank, within the framework of the RBI Act, is an essential and accepted governance requirement. Governments in India have nurtured and respected this,” the statement read.

Though the full-blown confrontation between the government and RBI has deferred, for now, it doesn’t mean that the differences between the two have been buried. Moreover, it certainly doesn’t indicate that all is well with RBI and government. However, there are many reasons why despite the strong disagreement with Modi government, Urjit Patel has chosen to stay or as it seems.

The economic crisis India is witnessing is becoming more and more apparent though, the government has been reluctant in accepting that there is a crisis in the first place. In such a scenario, a war of words playing out between the Finance Minister and Deputy Governor of the Central bank indeed sends a wrong signal. If Patel resigns now, the confidence of foreign investors in the Indian Economy will take a serious hit. Though it may not lead to drastic impact such as investors pulling out of India, however, it does give a bad impression and raises the question on the credibility of the institution.

On the other hand, for Urjit Patel quitting now is like leaving the ship to sink. As HW Business and Finance Editor Akhilesh Bhargava points out, “A commander will not leave the battle even if he is going to retire the next day. The situation for Urjit Patel is somewhat similar. If he quits amid the government-RBI standoff, it will adversely impact the stock market, the rupee will weaken and interest rates will soar.” For any banking professional economic crisis credited to him/ her is bound to bring minus marks on the report card. Urjit Patel certainly would not want that especially in the last leg of his tenure as 24th RBI governor.

While Patel avoided the disaster by not resigning, the government has a lot of answering to do. Why did Finance Minister belittle RBI- the apex financial institute of the country at an event that was attended majorly by the foreign audience? Though it was Viral Acharya who had publicly given a hint about RBI’s rift with the government, Finance minister could have found out a better way to handling the dispute. His statement only further fuelled the fire instead of dousing it.

Urjit Patel

Image Source: Web

Secondly, it also raises questions on the policy decisions taken by the Finance Minister and the Prime Minister. Earlier, former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan was said to have differences with the Modi government over a policy matter. Same was the case with Arvind Pangaria, first NITI Aayog VC and Arvind Subramanium, Chief Economic Advisor. Both of them stepped down before their tenure came to completion. Though the government said both of them left due to personal reasons, the pattern certainly cannot be ignored. The economic experts deserting the Modi government begs an important question of whether or not the Modi govt’s policies are flawed?

While it casts a shadow on the functioning of Finance Minister, the RBI crisis affects PM Modi the most. The CBI vs CBI and later the CBI vs government fight was not enough already, the Modi government is hit with another institutional crisis. PM Modi’s image as a leader in control has seriously been dented due to this. The two crisis have rather placed Modi as a leader with no control while the apex institutions are either dealing with infighting or are in a stand-off with his own government.

As of now, Urjit Patel’s decision of not quitting the post has avoided the catastrophe. Will the government be able to find a way to successfully deal with the RBI crisis or will it prove to be a calm before the storm? All eyes are now on the November 19 RBI board meeting.

Continue Reading

Popular Stories

Copyright © 2018 Theo Connect Pvt. Ltd.