Explained: The equation behind Congress-JD(S) alliance worries in Karnataka assembly

Since the Congress-JDS coalition formed a government in the state of Karnataka last year, the government is literally in a “to be or not to be” situation. While internally the coalition faces many problems, on top of it, BJP is trying to form its own government in the state.

The latest crisis hit the ruling coalition on Saturday when As many as 12 MLAs from the ruling coalition submitted their resignation to the speaker of Karnataka Assembly. Out of the 12 legislators, nine are from the Congress and three are from the JD(S).

The mass resignation comes just days after Congress MLA Anand Singh resigned over the differences he had with the party.

However, the resignations have not been yet accepted by the Speaker.


How does this affect the numbers in Congress-JDS Karnataka assembly?


Current status

The Karnataka assembly has a total of 225 members, including the Speaker. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the largest party with 105 MLAs. The Congress has 78 and JD(S) 37 MLAs. Besides these, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and KPJP have one MLA each. The Karnataka assembly also has an Independent MLA and one MLA is nominated by the government. If we exclude the Speaker, the strength falls to 224 and the magic figure to form the government is 113.


Source: Wikipedia
Currently, the tally of the Congress-JD(S) alliance is 115, which gives it a majority. As on date, the alliance also has support from the BSP and the lone independent MLA. Which means the Congress-JD(S) alliance strength is 117. Considering the lone Anglo-Indian nominated MLA, nominated by the government, the effective strength goes to 118. The BJP, on the other hand, has the support of KPJP which has one MLA. Thus the BJP+ stands at 106 at present.
The Congress-JD(S) has no choice but to convince their MLAs to take back their resignation.
What if the speaker accepts the resignation?

If the Speaker accepts the resignation of the eight Congress and three JD(S) MLAs, the effective strength of the Karnataka assembly will fall to 214. Excluding the Speaker, the strength becomes 213. In this scenario, the magic figure needed to form the government will be 107. BJP+ since it already has 106 MLAs. It would however still need the support of one more MLA.

All eyes will now be on Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar when he attends office on Tuesday. If he accepts resignations of the 11 MLAs, a trust vote in the Karnataka assembly will be imminent. In case he refuses to accept the resignations, he will have to provide valid reasons for it.

A trust vote in the favour of the BJP might mean that the saffron party will get a chance to form their own government.


BJP’s role in triggering the Congress-JD(S) crisis

While the BJP denies any role in MLAs resigning, it is not shying away from saying that they should be invited to form the government. union minister Sadanand Gowda has said that the BJP is ready to form the government in Karnataka if the Governor invites and Yeddyurappa will be the Chief Minister.
Karnataka BJP chief BS Yeddyurappa accused senior Congress leader and state minister DV Shivakumar of “tearing” resignation letters of some MLAs inside the Speaker’s office.
Previously, the saffron party was accused of “poaching” the Congress-JD(S) MLAs, to form their very own government.
Meanwhile, soon after putting in their papers, 10 of these MLAs have been moved to the Sofitel hotel in Mumbai. According to reports, they were moved to Mumbai in a chartered plane that belonged to BJP MP Rajeev Chandrasekhar. While 10 MLAs are currently at Sofitel hotel in BKC, the crisis hit Karnataka govt trying to find a way out. Reportedly, BJP’ leaders Prasad lad and Mohit Kambhoj were spotted at the hotel. Back in Bengaluru the DK Shivakumar and Deve Gowda held a meeting.
According to sources, the party may offer ministerial berths to the rebel MLAs to keep the flock together.

Also Watch: Can the Congress-JDS alliance survive the latest Operation Lotus?

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