The SC verdict on who is the real Shiv Sena is still pending, but the judgment of the people’s court will be out on the 23rd of November when the results of the 288-member assembly elections will be announced.
In this article, let’s discuss who currently has the edge in the Shiv Sena vs. Shiv Sena battle and whether the sympathy factor for Uddhav Thackeray still remains strong enough to help him electorally.
Let’s discuss five points that show which Sena is ahead of the rival faction.
Point Number 1: Poor Choice Of Candidates
As of the time of publishing this article, the Uddhav-led Sena has released a list of a total of 83 candidates, while the Shinde-led Sena has announced 45.
However, political pundits believe that, on paper, Shinde’s list looks more powerful, and Uddhav’s lacks winnability criteria. This is a similar mistake that Thackeray made in the Lok Sabha elections, which resulted in him being the weak link of the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Experts say that many candidates fielded by Thackeray lack ground connect.
Point Number 2: Following Alliance Dharma
On one hand, the fight over the 12 seats between the MVA continues and is out in the open; on the other hand, the Mahayuti’s seat-sharing has been visibly smooth. I repeat, visibly smooth. There might be problems, but they are kept behind closed doors.
Take the example of Nilesh Rane, son of former CM Narayan Rane. He was a BJP member, but the seat he is likely to be fielded from, the Kudal seat, has been won by the Shiv Sena for the last two elections. The sitting MLA is with UBT, so the seat is going to Eknath Shinde’s quota. Thus, Nilesh Rane has joined the Shiv Sena.
Point number 3: Relying too much on the sympathy factor
If someone dies in your house, in the first week you cry; in the second week, you feel bad but try to move on; and in the third week, you feel the void but continue with regular business.
Many say an election can turn in 10 days, so how can one guarantee that a split that happened in 2022 can convert into sympathy votes? Things would have been different if Thackeray had focused on course correction after the Lok Sabha elections and talked about his vision rather than just complaining to the voters of Maharashtra about Eknath Shinde splitting his party.
Point Number 4: If Not Me, Then Who?
A mistake Congress made in Haryana, Uddhav Thackeray is making in Maharashtra. The thought that if there is an anti-incumbency factor, I will benefit, is not always applicable. Although it’s true that a voter generally votes to punish and not to elect, the choice they make is not always easy to predict.
Point Number 5: Ladki Bahin Yojana
This scheme provides financial assistance to women aged 21-65 with an income of less than 2.5 lakh. Originally a BJP idea in MP, it is now getting associated with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar in some regions.
Women from the Muslim community, who are not traditional voters of the Shiv Sena, could extend support to the Hindutva ideology party. Conversely, a section of Hindutva voters who considered Balasaheb Thackeray their leader have gone with Eknath Shinde.
Through the Ladki Bahin Yojana, he is trying to cut across religious lines and woo 4.6 crore women voters. The govt says Ladki Bahin Yojana has benefited 2.34 crore women so far.
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