India withdrew from the Soviet-era Ayni airbase in the year 2022 and India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal announced it in weekly presser on October 30, 2025, 3 years after the exit
India’s exit from the Ayni Airbase in Tajikistan marks the end of its strategic influence in Central Asia – a region that closely monitors developments in Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Ayni, India’s only foreign military base, was established in 2002 during the Vajpayee era. Reports say that, under pressure from China and Russia, Tajikistan became hesitant to renew the lease signed in 2002.
Did India’s US-oriented foreign policy in 2022 cost us Ayni airbase?
Since the start of the Modi regime, India’s foreign policy has tilted towards the United States – or, one could say, taken a more anti-China orientation. This approach was carried forward by the Biden administration, as initiatives like the QUAD gained greater prominence. Prime Minister Modi made it a point to personally attend the QUAD summit, underscoring India’s commitment to the grouping. However, unlike the earlier years, India’s relations with the US today appear somewhat strained. This shift may have irked China, prompting Beijing – with Moscow’s support – to try and curtail India’s strategic influence in Dushanbe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been a strong votary of BRICS – a stance that may have once allowed India to operate the Soviet-era air base in Tajikistan – Russia has become increasingly dependent on China since its invasion of Ukraine. The United States, along with European nations, has imposed several sanctions on Moscow, forcing Russia to rely heavily on Beijing for exports and supply chains. Perhaps, after succumbing to Chinese pressure, Russia would’ve supported Beijing in 2022 and as reports suggest, the combined pressure from the two communist regimes may have compelled Tajikistan not to renew its lease agreement with India. Tajikistan holds a crucial position for China’s Belt & Road Initiative [BRI] and a critical buffer for the instability arising from Afghanistan.
Since 2002, India has spent close to $100 million to rebuild the Soviet-era facility and, at times, stationed around 200 Army and Air Force personnel there. The Ayni Airbase was also used to rescue Indian nationals from Afghanistan during the Taliban takeover in 2021.
India’s access to Central Aisa
After India’s exit from Ayni, the strategic influence it once enjoyed has effectively come to an end. While Pakistan has not allowed India to use its territory to access Central Asia, Iran has. However, challenges exist there too – and perhaps, they are even greater.
India has been developing the Chabahar Port in Iran to access Afghanistan and Central Asia, and early reports suggest that India has committed a total outlay of around $500 million in several phases.
In 2013, U.S. President Barack Obama signed the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act, which allowed Washington to impose sanctions on economic activities in Iran. In 2018, President Donald Trump intensified sanctions over Iran’s alleged nuclear program but granted an exemption to India for its construction activities at Shahid Beheshti – one of the two terminals at Chabahar.
Modi and Trump shared a cordial relationship in 2018 – unlike today. However, after Trump returned to the White House for a second term, his renewed ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda seemed to prioritize U.S. interests, even at the cost of the carefully built India–U.S. relationship over the years. Trump was willing to leverage India’s every pressure point to secure a trade deal which would be beneficial to the USA.
Thus, the Trump administration – after imposing tariffs on India and controversially claiming to have stopped an India-Pakistan war, a remark that was not well received in New Delhi – also announced in September this year that he would revoke the waiver for Indian operations at Chabahar, a concession he himself had granted in 2018. This would completely stop India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Aisa.
However, India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal in a weekly presser on October 30, 2025 said that India has got a 6-month exemption waiver on Chabahar from the US. “Yes, I can confirm that we have been granted exemption for a six-month period on the American sanctions that were applicable on Chabahar,” Mr. Jaiswal said.
This would be a precarious situation for India. If the U.S.–India trade deal doesn’t pan out well, will India receive another waiver from Washington or will it face sanctions? Could the U.S. once again use the Chabahar sanctions waiver as leverage against India?
Unlike Ayni, India cannot easily back out of Chabahar – its investments here are far larger. And if sanctions are reimposed, wouldn’t that effectively block India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia?
Why were Indian citizens not informed about India’s exit from Ayni airbase?
India withdrew from the Soviet-era Ayni airbase in the year 2022 and India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal announced it in weekly presser on October 30, 2025, 3 years after the exit.
PM Modi has often referred to military operations carried out by the Indian Armed Forces in his political rallies – whether it was the surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after the Uri attack in 2016, the Balakot airstrikes following the Pulwama attack in 2019, or Operation Sindoor after the Pahalgam attack.
Well, this exit from Ayni airbase in Tajikistan would necessarily not reap political benefits to the ruling dispensation, to the contrary would harm their political prospects. Was that the reason, the Government of India didn’t inform its citizens about the Ayni exit?
India’s contradictions with China
If the current dispensation in India seeks to pursue a pro-U.S. foreign policy – which also implies an anti-China stance – then why is India maintaining such a high trade deficit with China? The deficit has risen from $1.1 billion in 2003–04 to $99.2 billion in 2024–25.
If India continues to let its trade deficit with China balloon, what is the rationale behind adopting a pro-U.S. foreign policy? What purpose does India’s participation in the QUAD serve if it simultaneously expands its trade dependence on China?
As things stand, India is losing the Ayni Airbase in Tajikistan while its trade deficit with China widens – effectively losing on both fronts. India’s exit from Ayni after 25 years diminishes its strategic influence in the region and raises serious questions about the direction of its foreign policy.
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