Opinion Politics

Opinion | Sharad Pawar Prevails

I usually avoid speculation because strategy is not about prediction. It is about insights and reasoning. When Sharad Pawar is involved, the only useful method is to read the situation the way he would. I submit two points for you to ponder.


One. Why would the BJP stop an NCP merger and cut Sharad Pawar to size, when he has the MPs?


In Delhi, relevance is measured only by parliamentary strength. MPs matter. That is where Sharad Pawar still holds leverage.

 

The Ajit Pawar faction has one Lok Sabha MP and three Rajya Sabha members. The NCP (Sharad Pawar) faction has eight Lok Sabha MPs and two Rajya Sabha members. This arithmetic alone explains the BJP’s restraint.

So the obvious question. Why would Narendra Modi or Amit Shah block a merger that consolidates MPs, especially when Sharad Pawar is 85 and not positioning himself as a long term challenger.

 

An NCP without Sharad Pawar’s MPs offers little value in Parliament. From Delhi’s perspective. Stopping a merger, just to keep Sharad Pawar away, that to at this stage of his political life, makes no strategic sense.

Two. Would Sunetra Pawar trust Tatkare and Patel with her family’s future, or Sharad Pawar?

This is where media narratives often miss the point.

 

Sunetra Pawar became Deputy Chief Minister because Sharad Pawar wanted continuity under the Pawar name. The decision prevented internal jockeying and kept control within the family.

There was no serious resistance from the BJP. Sunetra Pawar was a consensus choice within the Pawar family and was smoothly accepted because the arrangement ensured stability.

 

The real choice with Ajit Pawar family was simple.
Hand over the family’s political future to Sunil Tatkare and Praful Patel, or rely on Sharad Pawar’s experience, networks, and succession plan. Who would you think you would have trusted, if in their shoes?

The formula agreed within the Pawar family is Supriya Sule handles the national role. Sunetra Pawar anchors the state, with the next generation logically following. So the question of Sule or Senior Pawar usurping power was already mitigated.

 

And as for all the noise and apparent drama around this phase, that too fits a familiar pattern. This is classic Pawar politics. Confusion on the surface, clarity underneath. Remember 2019 and the Ajit Pawar split. At the time it looked sudden and chaotic. With hindsight, we now know it was anything but accidental. We also know who ultimately shaped that outcome. Don’t we?

This is not drift. It is planning. Save this post. Revisit it in four to six months. Judge it then.

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