Will Millions Greet Trump?

President Trump has been berating and castigating India, in the run-up to his visit, in order to set the tone for trade negotiation that favour America

Mumbai: The maverick American President Donald Trump, arrives on his maiden visit as President to India, on the noon of 24.2.2020 when his Air Force One aircraft will land at Ahmedabad airport. He comes with his family and a high powered trade and defence delegation, which is the central focus of his visit. The US President is excited at the prospect that millions of persons, which he says that PM Modi has promised, are expected to line the roads to greet him on the way to the Modhera cricket stadium, where he will attend the ‘Namaste Trump’ event, which was earlier reportedly named ‘Kem Cho Trump’ show, the Indian edition of the highly successful ‘Howdy Mody’ show which was held at Houston last year and was attended by him and the Indian PM Shri. Narendra Modi. He is looking forward to being at this stadium, which he said is brand new and beautiful and which he says is the largest cricket stadium in the world. Incidentally, while earlier he said that 7 million persons will line up to greet him, he now says that it is going to be ten million and he says that it has spoilt him already, mentioning that a maximum of only 60000 persons attends his rally in the USA.

While he refers to Mr Modi as his good friend, the transactional businessman that he is, and which has been the hallmark of his presidency, where international diplomacy and even relationship with traditional close NATO allies, have been completely trading focussed, his forthcoming India trip too is primarily focussed on trade deals. The earlier expectation of signing a mega FTA with India has been shelved and has been postponed now to be signed after the US presidential elections this year, one can thus expect smaller deals and pacts to be signed, including for energy, oil & gas, defence supplies, IPR protection, trade facilitation, and homeland security. On the table is a demand for greater access to Indian markets for American products, including dairy and agricultural products.

President Trump has been berating and castigating India, in the run-up to his visit, in order to set the tone for trade negotiation that favour America. Trump has called India the tariff king because of its high tariffs that he claims are among the highest in the world, unmindful of the high tariffs set by America too, wherever it suits its domestic interests. For example, American import duty tariffs for tobacco in the USA is 350%, for peanuts is 163.8% and for ordinary products like footwear and glassware is 48% and 38% respectively. He says that India’s import tariffs have hit the USA hard for many years and he blames India for unfair market access practices that stifle the exports of American products like the Harley Davidson bikes and high-end electronic products to India. With the USTR not accompanying the American President, any big trade deal is ruled out. So what can be expected out of this visit of the American President to India?

1. The visit is business focussed, seeking to open Indian markets for American products.
2. It is also defence focussed, including further defence engagement in the Indo Pacific region, to contain a rising China.
3. Trump has already got what he wants, yet negotiations can hit a rough patch, so typical of Trump’s visit to any country in the world.
4. He is in no hurry to sign a big trade deal with one with China, Mexico and NAFTA on the cards.
5. Better defence ties to contain China and its puppet Pakistan.
6. Lots of showmanship and optics.

The success of the Modhera event ‘Namaste Trump’ is likely to set the tone for the entire India trip. The Indian side has been unruffled by Trump’s theatrics and bullying and has been quietly working behind the scenes to ensure success of the visit, with issues like H₁B visa, defence cooperation and deals, counter-terror, opening the American markets for Indian steel, aluminium products, Agri items, auto components and engineering goods on the table. And it has already done the right thing by offering defence deals and oil deals to America to balance trade relations between India and the USA, and foster relationships further.