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Met department models indicate monsoon may hit Kerala around 25 May; will be earliest onset in last seven years

The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast suggests an early onset of monsoon this year, a media report said. The weather bureau had predicted a normal monsoon last month.

According to reports, models run by the MeT department indicate the onset of monsoon over Kerala is likely to be around 25 May. It normally occurs on 1 June. The report, however, added that the IMD’s official onset forecast is expected only on Saturday.

If the monsoon is to arrive in Kerala on the predicted date, it will be the earliest onset of monsoon in the last seven years, the report further added. Onset criteria such as a change in the wind direction and good rainfall over the southern tip of the country among others are expected to be fulfilled around that time, according to forecast models, the report says.

Current forecast features also indicate above normal rains to continue over parts of the south peninsula and eastern coast of India during the period from 25 May to 7 June.

Last year, the Southwest Monsoon, which brings seasonal rain to the Indian subcontinent, hit Kerala and North East on 30 May, two days before its scheduled date.

Director-general of the IMD, KJ Ramesh, however, had attributed the early onset of monsoon in the North East, two days before its normal onset date, to Cyclone Mora, which he said had aided the advancement of the seasonal rainfall.

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