The ABP-CVoter survey predicts NDA to win 276 seats, the UPA, on the other hand, stands to gain 112 seats if the elections are held now.
A day after Mayawati’s shocker that her party BSP will not be joining Congress in Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan, a pre-poll survey has come to fore which suggests that Congress stands to lose more if it fails to stitch an alliance with SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. The ABP News-CVoter ‘Desh ka Mood’ (Mood of the Nation) survey also predicted that with the divided opposition NDA can reap big benefits although at the cost of lesser seats.
However, the survey predicts Prime Minister Narendra Modi will get the second term at power in 2019. While the survey predicts NDA to win 276 seats, the UPA, on the other hand, stands to gain 112 seats if the elections are held now. The non-NDA, non-UPA parties are predicted to get 115 seats. The vote shares of NDA and UPA will be 38 percent and 25 percent respectively while others will have a vote share of 37%.
What is interesting to note here is in 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP singlehandedly won 282 seats. However, according to the survey, the BJP together with the NDA parties cannot even reach the mark if the elections are held today. If BJP loses the comfortable majority it has now, it will have to depend on the coalition partners to form the government. As we have pointed out in our survey, this poses a serious threat to Modi’s PM prospect in 2019.
On the other hand, Congress which showed an abysmal performance in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and fell to only 44 seats stand to gain as UPA is predicted to win 112 seats. In 2014, UPA had won 60 seats. The ABP-CVoter survey thus predicts a jump of almost 50% in the seats of UPA.
Uttar Pradesh:
The ABP-CVoter survey has presented predictions for three possible scenarios-firstly, if Congress, SP, and BSP join hands. Second, if BSP decides to go alone and third if SP-BSP forms an alliance without Congress. The state has 80 Lok Sabha seats which are the maximum and thus is considered the most crucial state.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had swept the state by winning as many as 71 seats. SP won 5 seats, while Congress and Apna Dal won 2 seats each. Mayawati’s BSP couldn’t even open an account in the state which is considered its stronghold.
- Congress+SP+BSP
According to the Survey, if the above three parties form a grand alliance then they can win as many as 56 seats. BJP, on the other hand, will face a big setback with seats falling down to only 24.
- SP+BSP
Another possible scenario is Congress chooses to stay out of the SP+BSP alliance. In this scenario, the alliance will get 42 seats, UPA (Read Congress) will get only 2 seats and NDA will get 36 seats. In this scenario, the SP-BSP alliance stands to gain the most while NDA stands to lose 37 seats.
- In case there is no Grand Alliance
In case there is no Grand alliance and UPA and NDA parties contest the election, then NDA will repeat the 2014 result albeit with the loss of only 1 seat. While UPA will win only 2 seats, others will win only 8 seats.
Bihar:
According to the survey, in Bihar too, there can emerge two scenarios: One, if LJP and RSLP join the UPA parties or Second, they remain in NDA.
In the first case, i.e. if they join UPA then the UPA is predicted to grab 18 seats while NDA will get 22 seats. However, if they remain in NDA, the UPA is speculated to lose 9 seats while NDA gets 31 seats.
In both the scenarios, NDA has an edge over UPA parties in the state.
Madhya Pradesh:
Madhya Pradesh has total 29 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, UPA had won only 2 seats in the state while NDA had won 27 seats. The ABP-CVoter survey predicts that UPA’s seats will increase only by 4 seats and NDA will win 23 seats.
In a survey conducted in August, the agency had predicted that NDA is set to lose the assembly elections in the state.
Rajasthan:
Rajasthan has 25 Lok Sabha constituencies. In 2014, BJP has swept the state winning all the seats. Congress couldn’t even open its account. According to the survey, the BJP’s seat may come down to 18 while Congress may win 6 seats if elections are held today.
Apparently, CVoter had predicted that NDA would lose the upcoming state assembly elections in a survey conducted in August.
Chhattisgarh:
Chhattisgarh has 11 lok sabha seats. In 2014, BJP won 10 seats while Congress won only 1 seat. The survey doesn’t predict a major difference in the tally. If the elections are conducted today, BJP will lose one and Congress will gain 1 seat from the current seats.
Maharashtra:
Maharashtra is one of the crucial states for both BJP and Congress. As the alliance scenario is still not clear in Maharashtra, the political situation remains ambiguous. On one hand, Shivsena is sending every possible signal of being upset with the BJP, at the same time refusing to walk out of alliance and government, on the other hand, the talks of an alliance between NCP and Congress are still in initial phase. A new alliance between Prakash Ambedkar and Owaisi is also expected to cut into secular votes.
The state contributes total 48 seats to the parliament. In 2014, BJP won 23 seats, Shivsena 18 seats, NCP won 4 seats while Congress won only 2 seats in the state. The ABP-CVoter have given predictions for the three possible scenarios:
- Congress+NCP, Shivsena goes solo:
In this case, UPA stands to be the biggest gainer with 30 seats. NDA will win only 16 sets while Shivsena is considered to win only 2 seats if it goes solo.
- Congress+NCP, BJP+Shivsena:
If the original UPA and NDA parties remain intact then, the alliance of Sena and BJP can get an edge over the Congress and NCP alliance. The NDA here stands to win 36 seats while UPA will win 12 seats.
- All parties contest solo:
In this case, BJP will get maximum seats i.e. 22 followed by Congress which is predicted to get 11 seats. NCP has to settle with 8 seats while Shivsena may win only 7 seats.
Odisha:
Odisha has 21 Lok Sabha constituencies. In 2014, BJD has won 20 seats in the state barring one which was won by BJP. According to the survey, the tables could turn upside down with BJP winning 13 seats in the state, BJD winning 6 and Congress gaining 2 seats.
Punjab:
Punjab has a total of 13 Lok Sabha constituencies. In 2014, SAD, Congress and AAP had won 4 seats each while BJP only won 1. The survey predicts this time Congress (UPA) will emerge as a clear winner by winning 12 seats while BJP/NDA will win only 1. Punjab is now one of the few remaining states where Congress is in power.
Haryana:
Haryana has a total 10 Lok Sabha constituencies. In 2014, BJP won 7 seats, INLD won 2 and Congress won only 1 seat in the state. According to the survey, BJP may lose one seat. Congress may get 3 seats while others will win 1 seat.
Delhi:
The popularity of the ruling BJP seems to remain intact in the national capital as like in 2014, the party is expected to sweep all 7 seats, according to the survey.
South (Karnataka+ Kerala+ Telangana+ Andhra Pradesh+ Tamil Nadu):
The five southern states together contribute total 130 seats to the Lok Sabha. While the BJP strengthened its foothold in the northern states post-2014, it is still struggling to make an effective debut in the South. Apart from Karnataka, BJP has never been able to make indoors in the Southern states. Even when the entire country was witnessing a peak of a Modi wave, the BJP couldn’t win significant seats in South. Out of 282 seats, the four southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu together contributed only 21 seats to the tally of BJP.
Interestingly, Congress too hasn’t shown any better performance in the south. In 2014, the party only won 20 seats in the south. However, significantly, out of the 44 seats that the party won 20 cases from South.
The regional parties, however, dominated the results.
According to the ABP-CVoter survey, NDA will still get the same numbers i.e. 21, UPA tally will be 32. However, the regional parties will be the real king of South getting 76 seats. It must be seen whether this comes as a signal for the Congress to look south for alliances.
North-East (Assam+ Manipur+ Mizoram+ Nagaland+ Tripura+ Arunachal Pradesh+ Sikkim+ Meghalaya):
The seven states of North-East contribute to 25 seats in the Lok Sabha. Incidentally, both Congress and BJP managed to win 8 seats each from this region in 2014. However, following the formation of North-East Democratic Alliance and Himanta Biswa Sharma’s joining of BJP has strengthened the party. The victory in Tripura and Assam has added to it. On the other hand, Congress’ presence in the state has deteriorated sharply.
According to the ABP-CVoter survey, the NDA coalition will get as many as 18 seats in north-east. This comes close to the target of 21 seats from North-East set by Amit Shah. UPA has to settle with 6 seats while others will get 1 seat.
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