Why can Karnataka defeat prove a winning streak for BJP in 2019 ?

With his hands folded and heavy voice, BS Yeddyurappa today, tendered his resignation. Yeddyurappa– the 23rd Chief Minister of Karnataka and the man who helped BJP build a base in the southern state will go down in history as one of the short-tenured CMs. The high voltage drama that began after the Karnataka witnessed a fractured mandate, paved a way for a bitter battle between BJP which emerged as the Single Largest Party but fell short of majority and Congress-JD(S) post-poll alliance.

Today, the drama came to an end with BJP failing to muster up support from the opponent camp. BS Yeddyurappa visibly drained stood up and confessed that the BJP failed to get the majority. He said, “If we had received 113 seats instead of 104, we would have made this state a paradise.” In his last speech as the 23rd CM, he slammed the Congress and JD(S) alliance calling it a backdoor politics. “People have blessed us with 104 seats. The mandate wasn’t for Congress or JD(S) yet they formed an alliance to form the government.”

While BJP lost the rigorously fought battle and Congress-JD(S) managed to survive what could have been proved to be a death blow, one cannot deny that the Karnataka Assembly Elections have set the wheels in motion in run up to 2019 Lok Sabha Election. The highly dramatic assembly elections in this southern state were hailed as the semi-finale before the big match i.e. 2019 General Elections.

This outcome of Karnataka Assembly Election is not only crucial for the people but also for the political parties. The Results have larger implications, even beyond the boundaries of the state. For the opposition and the regional players who are keen on the federal front, the election came across as a litmus test to see whether the idea of united position can be implied across the country. While, certainly, the resignation of BS Yeddyurappa vindicated the Congress-JD(S) alliance, it is unlikely that BJP will easily swallow this defeat.

The outgoing CM Yeddyurappa in his speech promised to work hard for the party and ensure 150 seats in the next Assembly Elections. More importantly, he set the record straight for 2019 elections. He said, “I will tour the state personally and ensure all the 28 Lok Sabha seats are won by BJP. That will be my gift to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.” Clearly, the BJP decided to shift the focus from state politics to the immediate big battle.

For BJP, letting Karnataka government slip through its hand is just a small sacrifice the party is willing to make in order to pull its strength together for big battle. A look at the statistical breakdown of Karnataka verdict is enough to prove that the BJP not only improved its number tally but also its vote share saw a huge jump. The fact that it is the single largest party points that the Saffron party was able to galvanise support from the masses. Despite BJP government being criticised over the several raging issues like unemployment, Dalit atrocities across the countries, these issues were not reflected in the Karnataka verdict. Rather, BJP was partially successful in spinning the narrative despite no signs of anti-incumbency.

The narrative after BSY’s resignation will be spun in a way that will portray the alleged injustice towards BJP. Yeddyurappa’s teary-eyed speech was evident that the party is banking upon the victim card to garner sympathy. The BJP is well aware that even if Congress and JD(S) have come together to keep them out in Karnataka, the coalition might as well prove disastrous for the state. With 104 MLAs, the BJP also poses stronger opposition to the Congress-JD(S) in Karnataka.

The topmost star campaigner of BJP PM Modi is unarguably a trump card that the party holds. Though it was said that the Modi wave wouldn’t work, the reality on the ground was different. The BJP grassroots workers HW News talked to confessed that before the rallies of Narendra Modi, the party wasn’t even sure of winning 70 seats. “The party crossed 100 marks because of Modi ji’s rallies,” said a Karyakarta. If, as promised by Yeddyurappa, the BJP manages to win the maximum Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, it will definitely make a big difference to the tally of the party. As they rightly said, the path to 2019 passes from Karnataka, the BJP even after losing out on it has hinted at its steps towards 2019.

So, the question that arises is, if Congress-JD(S) gets to form the government and BJP strengthens its 2019 prospect with his defeat, who really loses in the battle for Karnataka other than the people themselves?