In the short-term, a solid performance in Parliament would also allow the opposition parties to work together for the key state elections lined up in 2022.
The Monsoon Session of Parliament, starting July 19, is the first opportunity for the opposition parties after the West Bengal poll results to test their proposed unity against the BJP for the 2024 national elections.
The assembly polls, held in April, have been described as historic by the opposition parties as they demonstrated that the BJP can be defeated by strong leaders in states and, with joint effort, nationally too.
That premise formed the basis of renewed attempts by some key opposition leaders, to prepare a plan to collectively take on the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
A meeting of select opposition leaders hosted at the Mumbai residence of Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar in June indicated that the block was up to something. The get-together, organized under the aegis of Rashtra Manch, floated by former BJP and now TMC leader Yashwant Sinha, however was downplayed by its organizers.
Weeks after that meeting, the monsoon session presents an opportunity for these parties to test their plan. A show of strength, better floor coordination and a unified projection of issues against the ruling party in Parliament will send a strong message across the country that the opposition means business and is serious about taking it forward.
In the short-term, a solid performance in Parliament would also allow the opposition parties to work together for the key state elections lined up in 2022 including Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Gujarat and Goa. The long-term target, of course, remains the 2024 national polls.
The BJP rules all these states barring Punjab, which is under Congress control. In most of these states, there will be a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress though the Aam Aadmi Party is also trying to make its presence felt.
Interestingly, there are no signs of any opposition unity in the biggest battle ground UP, where key parties like Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Congress plan to go solo.
However, the situation may change and new equations may emerge over the coming months.
Session Strategy
The resonance of political bitterness in West Bengal is bound to be reflected in Parliament with the Trinamool Congress preparing to protest against Governor Jagdeep Dhankhar and demand that he be recalled.
CM Mamata Banerjee has had several confrontations with Dhankhar over the past years and alleges that he is partisan. The Governor, a former saffron party leader, has denied the charge, though West Bengal Assembly Speaker Biman Banerjee also complained to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla over Dhankhar’s “excessive interference” in legislative matters during a recent online interaction.
The Congress too has identified issues like corruption in the Rafale jet deal, the ongoing farmers agitation, high prices of essential items and fuel, a slowed down economy, the Indo-China border row and the overall management of the pandemic including the allegedly slow pace of vaccination amidst threats of the third wave of Covid-19.
The coming session is also the first one after the second wave of the pandemic, which was more devastating.
The last year’s monsoon session had ended amidst a showdown between the opposition and the Centre over the three farm laws that were passed hurriedly. With the farmers agitation showing no signs of slowing down and set to complete eight months on July 26, the opposition is bound to make a big issue out of it.
The Congress is particularly pressing for a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe into the Rafale jet deal after France started probing the purchase and it would be interesting to see if all the opposition parties back that demand.
Anticipating a tough time during the coming session, key union ministers have also discussed the saffron party’s and government’s strategy to face the opposition and push legislative agenda.
Around 17 new bills are slated to be introduced in the Lok Sabha during the monsoon session and an equal number of legislations may be introduced in the Rajya Sabha.
Lok Sabha leader
Days ahead of the monsoon session, speculation was rife that Congress chief Sonia Gandhi or former party chief Rahul Gandhi or senior leaders like Shashi Tharoor or Manish Tewari or Gaurav Gogoi could replace Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury as leader of the party in the Lok Sabha.
Since Congress is the single-largest opposition party in the lower house of Parliament (52/543 seats), the person heading the group also gets recognition as the leader of the opposition.
Though Chowdhury did not officially get the leader of the opposition status, as the Congress did not have the required numbers (54), he was accommodated in the panel to appoint the CBI director.
The removal of Chowdhury was being linked to his strong views against West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and a rethink within the Congress to have better coordination with the Trinamool Congress.
Incidentally, Chowdhury also heads the party unit in West Bengal, where the Congress could not win even a single seat in the recent assembly polls while the TMC returned to power for a third consecutive term with a bigger mandate.
Hence there was a concern within the party that coordination in the Lok Sabha may not be smooth if Chowdhury continued to lead the party in the lower house.
Besides, the TMC, the Congress also needs better floor coordination between its other allies, the DMK and the Shiv Sena.
DMK is important as there are reports that the Tamil Nadu based party has agreed to allocate one vacant Rajya Sabha seat from its quota to the Congress. There is speculation that former leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha Ghulam Nabi Azad, who used to coordinate with the opposition leaders, may be back in the upper house soon.
Keeping Shiv Sena in good humour is needed as the ruling Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress coalition in Maharashtra has been facing some unrest over the past weeks over certain provocative remarks made by state Congress chief Nana Patole.
Congress insiders, however, denied the possibility of any change in the lower house. The job of coordinating with the other opposition leaders would be done by veteran Mallikarjun Kharge, who had replaced Azad as party leader in the upper house.
As an independent media platform, we do not take advertisements from governments and corporate houses. It is you, our readers, who have supported us on our journey to do honest and unbiased journalism. Please contribute, so that we can continue to do the same in future.
