Opinion | The Haryana Fiasco

It’s unclear whether the Congress anticipated a victory, but all indications seemed to point in that direction. The unexpectedness of the election results was palpable. 

The exit poll abides by a specific methodology to ensure that their analysis coincides with the actual count. The pollsters visit the same polling booth on multiple occasions to detect a swing of votes in case it exists. The swing is applied across the various constituencies to finally arrive at the data and hopefully expect it to tally. The exit poll data is more likely to indicate the direction of the voting pattern and may not coincide with the votes polled. The politicians tend to ridicule the exit poll if it is not in their favour.

There was also a ground-level assessment that could effectively discern the undercurrents. The BJP got a whiff of the seeming trend in Haryana, which prompted them to wind up their campaign during the concluding phase. It’s unclear whether the Congress anticipated a victory, but all indications seemed to point in that direction. The unexpectedness of the election results was palpable.

Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Yatras do not seem to have carried much weight in the form of votes. Although a lot is being said about his elevation in the political arena, the aftermath is evaluated more by his vote-pulling ability than anything else. Even in Jammu & Kashmir, Congress won just six seats out of the 32 they contested.

Rahul Gandhi intervened on various occasions during the campaign, but the onus was on Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s skills to garner votes. He managed to bring Selja Kumari and Hooda together during his campaign and made her hold hands with Hooda as well. However, it was too late in the day, underscoring the weight of Hooda’s influence in the campaign.

Reliable sources inform us that Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son Deepender Hooda took complete control of the election campaign. The CM’s chair was assigned to the senior Hooda and may be passed over to Deepender. Bhupinder, who is 77 years old, may not be able to hold on to it for long. Ironically, Hooda was not a candidate of the Haryanvi’s liking.

With Chautala and Devi Lal, Hooda added to the Jat leadership, the BJP ended the community preference by announcing Manohar Lal Khattar, a former RSS pracharak, as the CM in 2014. He is a Punjabi and the first non-Jat to lead the State in 18 years. This decision angered the Jat community, upset the caste matrix, and dealt a solid blow to the Jat leaders in the State. However, it has only gladdened the Haryanvi, and despite the anti-incumbency factor, they voted in large numbers for the BJP.

It is amusing that the undercurrents were left unnoticed by the political bigwigs of both the Congress and the BJP, and exit pollsters were also unable to judge them. This reflects on the poor coverage of the ground staff when the information conveyed did not measure up to the people’s final verdict.

The upcoming Maharashtra elections will be fought with the sympathy factor taking root within the electorate. The outcome of the voting is likely to be influenced by the legacy and influence of veterans like Balasaheb and Sharad Pawar, whose parties went through a vertical split. The Congress party’s prospects may be tied to these influential figures and the prevailing sentiment of anti-incumbency towards the current government. It is unlikely that Rahul Gandhi’s campaign will have a substantial impact on the election’s outcome. Additionally, the current Maharashtra government came into power not through a direct election but as a result of contentious mergers, which, although legal, may lack public approval.

Strangely, the Haryana fiasco came as a potential revelation to the political class when the exit poll results kept them engaged in meeting with the task ahead.

The views expressed by the author are strictly personal.