The word has spread across the world that Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, will possibly invade its neighbour Ukraine. All major developments over the past two months together indicate that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is very much likely. The flames of concerns were fanned even more when Biden administration warned of the possible imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, and scrambled to get back its citizens from the Eastern European country.
Though the conflict has caught the world’s attention now, it is not merely two months old. It goes all the way back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
History of Russia-Ukraine conflict
Both Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ukraine had been perceived by the leadership of Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. However, it all started in 2008 with Russian President Vladimir Putin opposing Ukraine’s membership in NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an intergovernmental military alliance between 27 European countries, 2 North American countries, and 1 Eurasian country led by the United States.
The fears of Ukraine about possible Russian invasion became more evident after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy, “which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO.”
Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. However, other European neighbours of Russia, along with Ukraine, accuse Putin of attempting to restore the Soviet Empire and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.
Russian troops deployment
The Kremlin has built up some 130,000 troops at the Ukrainian border. Putin seems to be preparing for a war, by moving more military equipment, medical units, even blood, to the front lines. That aggression could easily still spiral into the largest military conflict on European soil in decades.
On Tuesday, Putin claimed that Russia was sending some troops back to base after completing drills and that while he is open to further negotiations on the Ukraine crisis, Moscow’s security demands were an “unconditional priority.”
His claim was soon contradicted by the US, which said it has seen no evidence that any partial withdrawal had begun.
United States President Joe Biden told reporters Tuesday that the US has “not yet verified the Russian military units are returning to their home bases,” saying that they “remain very much in a threatening position.”
“Russia has increased its troop presence along the Ukrainian border by as many as 7,000 troops” with many of them arriving as recently as Wednesday, a senior official in Biden administration said.
US Warns of “severe consequences”
The United States has warned of “severe consequences” if Moscow carries out any military action in Ukraine.
Though the Biden administration has made it clear that it will not send any of its own troops to war, the US President said they have supplied the Ukrainian military with equipment to help them defend themselves.
“While I will not send American service members to fight in Ukraine, we have supplied the Ukrainian military with equipment to help them defend themselves,” Biden said in an address from the White House. “We’ve provided training and advice and intelligence for the same purpose.
Biden on Tuesday said he believes the Russian public does not want “a bloody and destructive war against Ukraine”.
Earlier, Biden had warned Vladimir Putin of Russia on Saturday that invading Ukraine would result in “swift and severe” costs to Russia, diminish his country’s standing and cause “widespread human suffering,” as Western officials made another diplomatic push to dissuade Mr. Putin from pressing forward with an attack.
Impact on India
Because of India’s important strategic and military relationship with both Russia and US, the South Asian country has found itself in catch 22 situation.
With the US recently calling a UNSC meet over the threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin travelling to Beijing to shore up its resolute stand on Ukraine, India will be walking a tightrope.
India abstained from voting in the US-convened meet of the United Nations Security Council on the Ukraine crisis. India also refused to comment on the issue at the Quad meet in Melbourne last week.
It is a testing time for India’s diplomatic prowess, as it will need to navigate between two of its key allies- Russia, with whom it shares a seven-decade old ties, and the US, with whom it has cemented and diversified its relations in last three decades post cold war.
On the economic front, India will be largely impacted due to global prices of crude oil, which are already on fire and a military conflict would send them even higher. Moreover, Ukraine is also the primary source of India’s sunflower oil import. In 2021, India imported around 1.89 million tonnes of sunflower oil, 74 per cent of which came from Ukraine.
With China backing the Russian offensive, the US may decide to tackle the Russia-China nexus at play by taking a pre-emptive action on Taiwan in case of military invasion of Ukraine. In such situation, India becomes a key player in the subcontinent, and both the US and Russia will want it to either support them or maintain neutrality. With China’s constant nagging at the borders in Ladakh and Northeast, India will be tempted to back the US in such situation. However, it will also mean going against Putin’s Russia, a time tested ally of the South Asian country, which satisfies Indian military’s major needs of arsenal. Without Russian supplied equipments, Indian military cannot operate effectively.
The possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia poses a plethora of diplomatic, economic and military challenges for India, and there is no scope for dilly-dallying.
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