Voting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections concluded on Saturday with the seventh phase, setting the stage for the high-stakes battle between the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA bloc.
As the nation breathed, exit polls attempted to predict the outcome later that evening. The exit polls were broadcasted from 6:30 pm on June 1, 30 minutes after the polling ended.
However, it’s important to note that exit polls have not always been accurate. The Election Commission of India will announce the results for all 543 parliamentary seats on June 4.
In 2014, while most exit polls correctly predicted an NDA victory, they failed to forecast the BJP’s landslide win accurately.
– Predictions on NDA:
- India Today-Cicero (272 seats)
- News 24-Chanakya (340)
- CNN-IBN-CSDS (280), Times Now ORG (249)
- ABP News-Nielsen (274)
- NDTV-Hansa Research (279)
– Predictions on UPA:
- India Today-Cicero (115 seats)
- News 24-Chanakya (101)
- CNN-IBN-CSDS (97)
- Times Now ORG (148)
- ABP News-Nielsen (97)
- NDTV-Hansa Research (103)
– Actual results:
- NDA (336 seats, BJP 282)
- UPA (60 seats, Congress 44)
In 2019, the exit polls underestimated the BJP’s performance, with the party outperforming most projections.
– Predictions on NDA:
- India Today-Axis (339-365 seats)
- News 24-Today’s Chanakya (350)
- News18-IPSOS (336)
- Times Now VMR (306)
- India TV-CNX (300)
- Sudarshan News (305)
– Predictions on UPA:
- India Today-Axis (77-108 seats)
- News 24-Today’s Chanakya (95)
- News18-IPSOS (82)
- Times Now VMR (132)
- India TV-CNX (120)
- Sudarshan News (124)
– Actual results:
- NDA (352 seats, BJP 303)
- UPA (91 seats, Congress 52)
The 2024 elections witnessed a direct contest between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA bloc. The ruling BJP seeks an unprecedented third consecutive term under PM Modi’s leadership, with an ambitious “400 paar” seat target for the NDA.
As the exit poll numbers trickle in, the nation will be watching with bated breath, aware that the real story will unfold on June 4th, when the people’s mandate is revealed.
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