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IMD Forecast A Normal Monsoon For the Country

Ministry of Earth Sciences said, “The country is expected to receive normal rainfall during June to September season this year”

MUMBAI| On Monday morning the southwest monsoon hit Kerala. The country receives over 70% of its annual rainfall form this season between June and September. This year, the IMD has forecast a normal monsoon for the country.

Kerala has been reporting continuous heavy rainfall over the last three days, mainly associated with the depression that has formed over the southeast Arabian Sea, off Kerala coast. Some locations in Kozhikode and Thiruvananthapuram districts, here, recorded rainfall close to 90mm till 8:30 am on Monday.

IMD declares onset of the monsoon onset over Kerala when the rainfall recorded over 14 stations Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore are 2.5mm or more for two or more consecutive days. Besides, IMD also Factors-in desired criteria including depth acquired by the westerly winds, the values of outgoing longwave radiation for the monsoon onset.

M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said, “The country is expected to receive normal rainfall during June to September season this year, with the season’s rainfall expected to be 102 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).” Rajeevan made the announcement during the release of the second stage Long Range Forecast prepared by the Indian Meteorological Department on Monday.

Between the June-September months, the rainfall recorded over the country is 88 cm calculated for the period 1961-2010. Rajeevan said, “There will be good rainfall distribution over all the homogeneous regions of the country. We expect normal rainfall this season, with a model error of +/- 4 per cent.”

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD said, “The Southwest monsoon which hit Kerala on Monday, has already covered most part of the southern State on the day of its onset.”

On rainfall distribution over the country during the season ahead, Mohapatra said, “Except for the Northeast, rainfall over remaining parts of the country would be either normal or above normal. Since a few years, rainfall over the Northeast has shown a declining trend, which is expected even this year.”

Accordingly, the rainfall forecast over the four homogeneous regions this season is Northwest India 107% of LPA, Central India 103% of LPA, South Peninsular India 102% of LPA and Northeast India 96% of LPA. According to the senior MET officials, a week La Nina is likely to develop during the latter half of the season. La Nina is the abnormal cooling of the equatorial and east-central Pacific Ocean. La Nina is good for the Indian monsoon, experts said.

The LRF said, Yet another atmospheric factor that influences the monsoon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), will remain neutral during the entire monsoon season.

The rainfall during July and August stand crucial for the country, as it is the time for major kharif season cultivation. 70 per cent of the season’s rainfall is recorded during July and August.

This year, rainfall in July is projected to be 103 per cent of the LPA whereas rainfall during August is expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA, the second-stage LRF stated.

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