The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee has decided to keep repo rate unchanged but sharply cut GDP forecast for 2019-20 to 5 percent from 6.1 percent
On Thursday the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went against majority expectations and the rate was unchanged at 5.15 percent in its fifth bi-monthly policy review of the year.
Many economists were confident that RBI’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would lower the key interest rate once again as growth in the second quarter reached a six-year low of 4.5 percent.
However, the central bank already cut the repo rate at which banks lend from the RBI five times since January without any growth. It seems that the central bank will now explore other options to revive growth.
All six members of the RBI’s MPC voted against the cut but maintained an accommodative stance, allowing it to act whenever necessary. In what seems to be another setback, the central bank also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the entire year to 5 percent from 6.1 percent.
RBI said in their statement said, “GDP growth for Q2 turned out to be significantly lower than projected. Various high-frequency indicators suggest that domestic and external demand conditions have remained weak. Based on the early results, the business expectations index of the Reserve Bank’s industrial outlook survey indicates a marginal pickup in business sentiments in Q4.”
RBI also added that overall sentiments are muted in several key sectors including manufacturing and construction. It expressed concern over contraction in the output of eight core industries as well.
Citing a sudden spike in inflation, it sharply increased its inflation projection from 4.7 to 5.1 percent after retail inflation jumped to a 16-month high of 4.62 percent in October.
RBI’s growth and inflation forecast could be a matter of concern as the situation could worsen further, as FInance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had stated that slow economic growth has not bottomed out yet.