The Indian National Congress defeated the Himachal Pradesh polls winning defeating the BJP. The Indian National Congress elected its first non-Gandhi chief after two and a half decades.
2022 witnessed a minimum of 14 major elections. Be it the presidential polls, Assembly polls, or Bypolls all got their due media coverage and hype.
India got its first tribal President, and BJP continued its winning streak winning 5 out of 7 state polls. Besides, Winning Gujarat with an unprecedented victory and returning to power in Maharashtra with Eknath Shinde’s support. The BJP also broke the incumbency curse in Uttar Pradesh by returning to power.
Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party’s victory in Punjab and their debut performance (5 seats) got them a national party status. The party also completed 10 years of establishment. AAP triumphed the BJP in the civic body polls and dethroned the saffron party’s 15-year-old regime.
The Indian National Congress defeated the Himachal Pradesh polls winning defeating the BJP. The Indian National Congress elected its first non-Gandhi chief after two and a half decades.
What 2023 looks like?
2023 will be a year when nine states and possibly the Union Territory of J&K will witness Assembly elections. These polls are paramount as they would set the momentum and build a pro or anti-narrative for the 2024 general elections.
Elections in 2023:
TRIPURA
When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged 35 seats in the 2018 elections, the vote margin between the saffron party and the Left was only 1.37%. The Congress came in a distant third.
Manik Sarkar of CPI (M), who had been the CM for almost two decades was unseated and BJP’s Biplab Deb took over. In May 2022, Deb was replaced by Manik Saha, apparently with an eye to beat anti-incumbency. He is faced with the challenge to iron out the differences growing within the state unit.
The BJP’s relationship with its key ally — tribal outfit Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) – is experiencing turbulence.
MEGHALAYA:
Even though the Congress emerged as the largest party in the Meghalaya assembly election in 2018, its tally of 21 seats fell short of the halfway mark in the 60-member legislature.
The saffron party joined hands with the National People’s Party (NPP) to form the government. Conrad Sangma became the chief minister. Last month, fissures surfaced between the NPP and the BJP. Recently, two MLAs resigned from the NPP and joined the saffron party.
The BJP aims to lead the coalition government this time. The coalition partners are trying to mend fences among themselves.
The Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) of NPP and BJP will face a tough fight from the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The Congress is also stepping up its campaign.
NAGALAND
The Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP)-BJP alliance stands strong. The BJP plans to fight in 20 seats and support NDPP candidates in 40 others in the 2023 elections. In 2018, it won 12 seats. This time, the BJP is looking to increase its vote tally.
KARNATAKA
Karnataka is the only southern state where the saffron party is in power. The Congress is desperate to wrest power from the saffron party. But both have to confront challenges. BJP government is facing graft charges, while Congress is battling infighting.
The BJP came to power in Karnataka mid-term in 2019 after H.D. Kumaraswamy led JD (S)-Congress coalition government lost the trust vote,
CHHATTISGARH
The Congress romped home by winning 68 seats out of 90 in the state while the BJP secured 15, in 2018.
In the Bhanupratappur Assembly bypoll recently, Congress posted a convincing win. It was the fifth successive defeat in bypolls for the BJP since 2018.
The other being Dantewada, Chitrakot, Marwahi and Khairagarh. These bypoll wins for Congress indicate what’s in store in the 2023 Assembly elections, but they can’t be taken as markers.
The state units of Congress and the BJP have been drawing up strategies and action plans for reaching out to the masses. Both parties have been holding meetings to discuss the core issues and discuss the election manifesto.
In September this year, three new districts were inaugurated by Baghel. Development work worth over Rs 930 crore was announced for two of these districts. These districts will play a crucial part in the poll outcome.
MADHYA PRADESH
Another Congress-elected government was triumphed by the BJP mid-term in 2020. Shivraj Singh Chouhan took oath as CM fourth time after former Congress loyalist Jotiraditya Scindya switched ship amid Covid wave 1.
There are murmurs In political circles that BJP may opt for a new CM face, as it did in Gujarat and won. Changing CM Shivraj Chouhan could help the party ride over a possible anti-incumbency wave. In July, the BJP won the local body polls. After the victory, the party claimed it has defeated Congress in the semi-final ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections.
MIZORAM
The Mizo National Front (MNF) government won 26 out of the 40 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections. The Congress could win only 5 seats. The BJP opened its account in the state for the first time.
The MNF wants to improve its tally, and so does the BJP. Congress is struggling to keep its flock together. MNF is part of both the NDA at the Centre and the BJP-led NEDA in the region. And chances are that it will grab the power again.
RAJASTHAN
CM Ashok Gehlot is facing a tough fight from his former deputy Sachin Pilot. Their tussle for CM’s post has been out in the open. Three months back, Gehlot’s camp did not attend the legislature party meet and earned the wrath of the high command. Gehlot was forced to drop out of the Congress presidential race. But he continues to stay defiant.
The campaigning for 2023 has already started. In October, former CM Vasundhara Raje asked the BJP to get ready for the elections. On December 18, Gehlot claimed that there is no anti-incumbency in the state and there cannot be a bigger achievement than this.
Like Congress, the BJP is also grappling with factionalism within the party. While BJP is banking on the Gehlot-Pilot fissure, it is also facing infighting within its cadre of late.
TELANGANA
In 2018, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which is now BRS (Bharat Rashtra Samithi) K Chandrashekar Rao secured a landslide victory by winning 87 of the 119 seats. The party upped its tally from 63 in 2014. Rao dissolved the House on September 6, nine months ahead of completing his term.
The Congress won 19 seats, two less than in 2014. It had struck a pre-poll alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and two others. TDP won two seats against 15 last time. The BJP could bag just one seat.
This time around, the political landscape has changed drastically, as the recent Munugodu by-poll indicates. The TRS defeated BJP, but the margin was only 10,000 votes. The spirited effort put up by the BJP goes to show that the 2023 Assembly election will be a tough one for TRS. Rao has a stronghold over constituencies, but there’s a feeling of disenchantment among some of his party workers.
Meanwhile, KSR’s daughter K. Kavitha is facing heat from the Central Bureau of Investigation in Delhi’s liquor policy case (now dissolved).
JAMMU AND KASHMIR
Jammu and Kashmir has been under President’s rule since the summer of 2018. Therefore, all eyes are on the upcoming Assembly elections.
Tarun Chug, BJP in-charge for Jammu and Kashmir, recently hinted at early polls. He has exhorted the party members to reach out to the people in the state and mingle with them. The party has started its preparations for the polls.
And visits by party president JP Nadda, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are reportedly lined up in the next three months.
The Opposition is bracing up too. On December 5, former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah was reelected as the National Conference chief.
The NC wants the restoration of Article 370 of the Constitution and statehood to Jammu and Kashmir.
The NC, Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party, the CPI(M), and the Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference – the Gupkar Alliance – may team up with the Congress before the elections.
Former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, who has floated the Democratic Azad Party, may also extend support to the alliance.
It will be interesting to see if BJP continues with its winning momentum or if there will be a change in the winds. It will also be the litmus test of whether the Bharat Jodo Yatra could create a long-lasting electoral impact.
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