The HW News Survey found that if the opposition wants to defeat Modi then it has to provide a clear leadership within three months who can combat Modi.
As the bells for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections have started ringing, the speculations about different political alliances and fate of the incumbent government are on rising. However, whether these considerations reflect in the masses or not is a pertinent question. Thus, HW News decided to conduct a survey through which we tried to gauge public opinion.
The survey named “People’s Belief” used Behavioural Study method to collect and assess the mood of the masses. This survey was conducted in six metros, fourteen cities, 300 villages and close to 7000 odd people were interviewed. The result of the survey divulged some interesting findings that can largely be attributed to the masses of the nation.
Let us go through the findings one by one:
- Modi wave has faded:
In 2014, a massive “Modi wave” led Narendra Modi to an unprecedented victory. Not only the party emerged as the single-largest seat-getter but it won the majority single-handed. The same wave was witnessed in subsequent state elections as the saffron party swept important states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh etc. under the leadership of star campaigner Modi.
However, the HW News Survey found out that the Modi wave has faded in the last four years. What is even more remarkable is that the Modi wave has come down to the half of what it was in 2014. This can prove to be a major blow to the BJP in the upcoming 2019 elections. Out of total respondents, 82% said that they voted for BJP in 2014 because of Modi, however, only 41% of them are ready to vote for Modi again in 2019, while 59% said that they will not vote for Modi in the upcoming elections.
The popularity of Modi has reduced to half. This dip in popularity will also affect the electoral results. According to our calculations, BJP will get 203 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, as against the 282 seats in 2014 Elections.
- The alternative to Modi:
Though PM Modi’s popularity has taken a severe beating, the BJP still has hopes as 60% people were still of an opinion that the BJP government deserves another term in 2019. However, this is not because the respondent saw BJP as an option but as the lack of any other viable alternative. When asked if they would vote for BJP with any other leader than Modi as a Prime Minister most of the respondent answered positively. Which indicates that people are ready to look for the alternative to Modi from BJP.
The BJP leader who was maximumly favoured in this regard was Nitin Gadkari with 55% votes following Sushma Swaraj who received the support of the 40%. Rajnath Singh, LK Advani stood third and fourth receiving the support of 4% and 1% respondents respectively.
The HW News Survey revealed that Nitin Gadkari and Sushma Swaraj are emerging as the two strong contenders of the PM Post against PM Modi from within BJP. The two received support more than opposition leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Sharad Pawar or Mamata Banerjee received for their Prime Ministerial contention.
- BJP voters willing to vote opposition provided a clear leadership:
The HW News Survey further revealed that 9% of the current BJP voters were ready to vote for opposition parties provided the opposition parties come up with clear leadership. The clouds of uncertainty still loom over opposition parties who are yet to decide who will lead the coalition. There are differences within the opposition parties regarding the Prime Ministerial candidate as well. While Congress has indicated that the PM candidate will be from the party, likes of Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee beg to differ as they themselves are in a fray to the PM post.
However, the ambiguity maintained by the opposition over the PM candidate has led people to consider BJP than any of the opposition parties.
- Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath not seen as leaders:
While the survey revealed a sharp fall in Modi’s popularity, he still emerges as the tallest leaders among all. He still comes across as a clear leader from BJP. Many of the respondents also felt LK Advani was suitable for the role. However, considering the age factor he received only 4% support.
Interestingly, respondents did not consider either Amit Shah or Yogi Adityanath worthy of being a Prime Minister. While Amit Shah comes across as a robin to batman Yogi Adityanath is only favoured in the role of a star campaigner. Many respondents were of the opinion that neither Shah nor Yogi is capable of being national leaders.
Veteran BJP leader Yashwant Sinha too is out of the race receiving no support from the masses.
- Troubles for Congress:
While the Congress is trying to stitch a nation-wide opposition coalition, the Survey reveals that 40% of the respondents will be voting for opposition parties. However, only 16% of them will be voting in favour of Congress while 24% voted for other parties. The respondents were of the opinion that there is the absence of clear and strong leadership in the Congress.
In the opposition camp, Rahul Gandhi is the most favoured as the PM Candidate with 16% voting in his favour. However, it is far from the support received by Nitin Gadkari. Rahul Gandhi was followed by NCP’s Sharad Pawar. While 6% of people believed that Pawar will be the PM in 2019, 3% favoured West Bengal, CM Mamata Banerjee.
Though Rahul Gandhi is received the maximum support, it has to be credited to the sympathy wave for him against the constant trolling. Thus, the 16% votes in his favour are sympathy vote and not the appreciative votes.
To conclude, the HW News Survey found out that PM Narendra Modi is still ahead of other PM post aspirants, despite a sharp dip in the popularity. The BJP though seems to be winning the majority, it will get NDA support only with alternate leadership to Modi from BJP. The opposition, on the other hand, it wants to defeat Modi then has to provide a clear leadership within three months who can combat Modi. This clear leader will not only consolidate the opposition votes but also bring the crucial 9% swing to the opposition tally. However, India is ready for a change in 2019 if only the opposition provides strong and targeted leadership.
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