Political alliance were one of the key factors why BJP-led NDA stormed to power. With the allies now distancing themselves from the BJP, it is time for BJP to keep its options to Modi ready.
Of all the skills that are a must in politics, being able to pick right friends at right time and craft political alliance holds a key importance. The former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said, “There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them”. Who could have known the importance of allies better than the revered statesman and master orator who led Britain to victory in the Second World War.
From Nehru to NDA:
It is even more evident from the vast political history of India. The first Union cabinet headed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru post-independence was also a coalition government. The Nehru cabinet included Scheduled Caste Federation’s Dr. B.R. Ambedkar as a Law Minister, who after Jawaharlal Nehru was non-congress second most powerful in the cabinet. Moreover, considering the importance of the alliance, former Prime Minister of India spearheaded the task of uniting several parties under one umbrella called National Democratic Alliance. The second Atal Bihari Vajpayee government had total 22 cabinet ministers and as much as eight of them were from alliance parties of NDA including Suresh Prabhu (Shivsena), Naveen Patnaik (Biju Janata Dal), Surjit Singh Barnala (Shiromani Akali Dal), George Fernandes (Samta Party), M. Thambidurai (AIADMK), Nitish Kumar (JDU).
The UPA government:
To counter the hitherto ruling of the National Democratic Alliance which had won total 254 seats in the 1998 General Elections, United Progressive Front was formed with Indian National Congress being the largest constituent. The UPA government won total 218 seats in the General Elections of 2004. The 2004 cabinet had non-Congress Ministers such as Sharad Pawar (NCP), T. R. Baalu and Dayanidhi Maran (DMK), Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD), Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP).
While the INC emerged as the largest party with 26.7% vote share converted into 145 seats, it lacked majority. The alliance parties such as Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munnetra Kazhgam, Nationalist Congress Party emerged second and third majority parties with vote shares 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively.
The second UPA government stormed to power with Congress crossing the threshold of 200. While most of the Cabinet Ministers were from Congress, NCP had technically second largest number of Ministers.
The alliance governments had its own set of teething troubles but the foremost purpose it served was not letting the government turn into an Authoritarian regime which dictates the terms. The alliance parties have a say in the decisions taken by the government as a whole. Thus, making the voices of the people they represent, count. The alliance government also reflects the democratic characteristics of the country.
Fast Forward to 2014, the General Assembly elections results turned out to be historic. Modi, the Supreme Commander of BJP emerged as the most powerful leader with the party single-handedly sweeping 282 seats, what Modi called as “Comfortable Majority”. The NDA alliance though intact, the other parties were reduced to relatively smaller number of seats. Shiv Sena and Telugu Desam Party won 18 and 16 seats respectively.
However, the results are not replicated in the Modi cabinet. Shiv Sena the second largest seat-getter got only one cabinet portfolio with Anant Gite becoming Minister of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, whereas, Telugu Desam Party received two cabinet portfolios with third largest seat getter. Ramdas Athawale of RPI(A) and Ram Vilas Paswan of LJD previously with UPA, were given one ministry each.
Current Scenario:
Four years into the Modi government and the political equations and chemistries are already changing colours. The very next year of historic win, BJP’s long-term ally Shiv Sena snubbed the party and fought the Assembly elections separately. Though the parties joined hands after the elections, the tiffs have not ended. Both the parties do not miss any chance to blame each other. Shivsena even went to the extent of praising its hardcore enemy Congress’ Rahul Gandhi. On January 23, Shivsena in its National Executive meet decided to opt out of NDA in 2019. The party chief Uddhav Thackeray announced that Shivsena will contest elections separately.
It is not that only Shivsena is upset with BJP. Talks are that Telugu Desam Party too is sharing a strained relation with BJP these days. The party is mainly unhappy with the sidelining of State Projects. The TDP has already dropped hints that its patience with the Centre was growing thin.
Recently, Swabhimani Paksha too broke the alliance with BJP. From 1999 several parties left the alliance and rejoined it. From 1999 to 2013 as much as 18 parties left NDA out of which two parties merged with BJP and one merged with JDU.
Post 2014, in just three years the number has reached half the number in last 14 years. Interestingly, three of the eight breakaway parties have merged with BJP.
Why are regional parties running away from BJP?
The answer mostly lies in the autocratic nature of Modi’s leadership. The Supreme Commander of BJP is popular for his diktat-type functioning inside the party. Look no far than his own government, and it will be clearly evident. Virtually, all important portfolios are indirectly handled by Modi. From Country’s Finance to Defence and Home to External Affairs the Ministries are dominated by Modi. The existence of Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Nirmala Sitharaman seems to be limited to countering opposition’s accusations, while the Supreme Commander overshadows them.
Is the case any different for the allies? No. What is generally regarded as ‘Modi Magic’ has swallowed the small regional parties faster than we can think of. Though NDA allies are represented in the cabinet their total number does not even reach 10. Apart from the Modi, there is no other leader who possibly is the alternate face of the government.
Modi’s persona has grown so magnificent in the short span of three years that it is now outshining that of BJP’s. BJP which once took pride in its battery of potential leaders and principals, seems to have been washed out in “Modi Wave”.
The Rebel former BJP leader Nana Patole who separated from the party over host of issues recalled that he was on the hitlist of Supreme Commander Modi because he had posed some questions regarding farmers and OBC community. He had said, “Modi does not listen to anybody. He does not like to take any questions.” He further added that, “When Modi is asked questions, he asks you if you have read the party manifesto and are aware of various government schemes.” Citing one of his personal experience Patole said, “I had made certain suggestions at the meeting like raising green tax, OBC Ministry and more central investment in agriculture. Modi got angry and asked me to shut up.” “The Ministers are in a constant state of fear,” Patole who joined Congress later, revealed.
Mission 2019: BJP must look for Modi’s alternative
With only one year in hand, all eyes are set on 2019 General Elections. Considering the slopping economic condition, adverse impact of Demonetization, GST and the silence of the PM Modi on host of social issues that plague the country, BJP is set to receive a blow in 2019. The Gujarat Assembly Election was its preview. In the home state of BJP’s Supreme Commander Modi, party was reduced to 99 seats. On top of it, The Modi wave seems to be fading as well.
On the other hand, party’s senior leadership too, is not happy with Modi’s functioning. It is well known that Modi’s name for Prime Ministerial candidature of BJP was picked in Party’s National Executive Meet in Goa in 2013 in Advani’s absence. After Modi, came to power, he re-structured the party, sending Advani-once BJP’s hero, to Margadarshak Mandal. The message was obvious.
However, Advani has still not let his guards down. Senior party leaders like Yashwant Sinha, Shatrughan Sinha, Arun Shourie, Ram Jethmalani of Advani camp have already started expressing their dislike towards Modi’s way of functioning openly.
It is evident that Modi and Amit Shah’s leadership has unsettled the base of NDA. With 2019 Lok Sabha election just a year ahead, it is time that BJP which boasts of its organizational and alliance skills must introspect about why its allies are turning their back to the NDA-the brainchild of BJP. If BJP has to save NDA, it must keep its options ready before 2019.
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