“Gujarat elections are heating up. The Election commission has finally declared the poll and counting dates. With this our news channels have got fodder to run their channels. All of them are invariably shouting out the so called ‘exclusive’ opinion poll results.Many of these opinion polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP. Most of them predict that BJP would land up getting between 120 and 135 seats. The Congress would stand decimated and the Aam Aadmi Party would make a poor debut.The Bookies too are predicted landslide win for the Bhartiya Janata Party. However, if you dig deeper into the data, these numbers become hard to digest and are really not back by any solid numerical evidence. The opinion poll agencies and the satta bazaars are going two major reasons – The 10-14% strong Patel community will vote en-mass for the BJP. Hardik Patel, who is 2017 was agitating, is now in the BJP. There is no Ahmed Patel so there is no one to take care of the Congress ground cadre. AAP has no credible local leader. As we know, the exit polls do go wrong in their predictions. The Satta Bazar too is no exception. In this episode I show how the data does not support the poll opinion polls. In addition, I recollect a few elections where the satta bazar prediction not only went wrong, they went horribly wrong. So, there is nothing for us to believe or not believe these poll predictions. I would rather wait for the election results. But one ting for sure is that if the BJP were to win 135 seats, a lot of interesting statistics would come up.
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