“Recent global events of strife and violence in Ukraine have pained me greatly. The mention of nuclear weapons has scared me. Violence and the resulting loss of human lives are highly unfortunate and avoidable, regardless of provocations and causes, however legitimate they may appear to be. India, as Mahatma Gandhi’s country, must be a steadfast and unwavering proponent of peace and nonviolence both at home and abroad.” said, Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his opinionated piece.
Mr. Singh’s Take On Conflict and A Reshaping
The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine heralds a shift in global power dynamics. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, several countries have adopted a paradigm of free societies, frictionless borders, and an open economy as their ruling order. People, products, services, and capital were able to move more freely around the world as a result of this. During this time, global trade and per capita GDP nearly doubled, signaling a period of universal peace and prosperity. With the goal of shared global prosperity, the world’s societies and economics become increasingly interconnected. The conventional belief was that such close interdependence among nations would lead to fewer conflicts and promote peace.
This knowledge has been shattered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If interconnection and trade between states are mutually advantageous, then its disruption and blockade will be mutually destructive. Economic sanctions enacted in retaliation for Russian actions have harmed all nations, albeit some have suffered more than others.
Egyptians are facing food shortages as a result of their reliance on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, Germans face high winter heating costs as a result of their reliance on Russian gas, Americans face a shortage of electric cars due to the unavailability of car batteries reliant on Russian nickel, Sri Lankans have taken to the streets to protest their economic woes, and Indian farmers face high fertiliser prices triggered by a global shortage.
For the coming new world order, India requires not just a non-aligned philosophy, but also a non-disruptive geo-economic policy that strives to sustain the current global economic balance. India can be both a major producer and a large consumer due to its sheer size and magnitude. With rising inflation, volatile crude oil prices, global uncertainty, weak domestic private investment, and a deteriorating fiscal situation, increased external trade presents the best opportunity to save India’s economy and create large numbers of jobs for our youth and women in the changing global environment. India requires not only friendly connections with states on both sides of the new divide but also a stable and established global economic climate to make the most of this potential. Within the greater framework of its non-alignment foreign policy, India must embrace a strategic economic self-interest ideology.
Prioritizing Social Harmony
It is in India’s best interests to maintain its domestic social equilibrium, just as it is in the country’s best interests to maintain the current geo-economic equilibrium. To become a large-scale producing nation, India requires millions of factories and hundreds of millions of people from all religions and castes working together across all states. Economic development is built on the foundation of social harmony. Fostering mutual distrust, hatred, and rage among residents, resulting in social discord, is a terrible descent into hell.
The remaking and realignment of the global order will provide India with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rethink its foreign policy, economic policy, and geopolitical strategy and assume global leadership. In the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, strengthening India’s global economic might through a prudent geo-economic policy could be a watershed moment in India’s economic history. As a peaceful democracy with economic success, India has the potential to be the fulcrum of this new global order. However, India must first address the country’s seething communal tensions. I genuinely hope and pray that India will emerge as the world’s harbinger of peace, harmony, and prosperity.
A Lived reality,’ Global Village’
‘Global Village’ is more than an academic concept; it is a lived reality for the world’s almost eight billion inhabitants. This ‘Global Village’ was established on modern transportation networks, with the US dollar serving as the reserve currency and integrated payment systems around it. Any disruption to this delicate balance has the potential to throw the ‘Global Village’ into disarray and wreck everyone’s life.
India, too, has reaped great benefits from being a part of this interconnected globe, with commerce (as a percentage of GDP) increasing in the last three decades and generating large numbers of jobs. Trade with other countries should and will continue to be an important part of India’s economic destiny. A return to isolationism and protectionism would be reckless and disastrous for India.
The Russia-Ukraine war is a global geopolitical and economic conflict that threatens to resurrect the Cold War era’s two dominating power blocs. Nations that did not condemn Russian aggression in the UN account for more than half of the world’s population but just a quarter of the worldwide GDP, compared to nations that criticised Russia, which accounts for three-quarters of the global economy. The former, the Russia-China bloc, is a huge producer with increasing purchasing power, whereas the latter, the Western bloc, is today’s large consumer. Any new barrier that separates these two blocs will cause enormous disruptions to the intertwined global economic balance.
Needed, ties on either side
Such bilateral agreements are now unsustainable, unwieldy, and dangerous, given India’s large external sector, flourishing economic relationships with several nations, and huge potential to grow trade. Opportunities to buy discounted oil or commodities may be appealing, but if they require a long-term departure from the established order of dollar-based trade settlement or jeopardise established trading relationships with western bloc markets, they could have long-term consequences for India’s export potential. In the long run, India will benefit more from unrestricted access to western bloc markets for Indian exports under the existing trading order than from discounted commodities purchased via new bilateral currency agreements that aim to construct a new and parallel global trade framework.
For the coming new world order, India requires not just a non-aligned philosophy, but also a non-disruptive geo-economic policy that strives to sustain the current global economic balance. India can be both a major producer and a large consumer due to its sheer size and magnitude. With rising inflation, volatile crude oil prices, global uncertainty, weak domestic private investment, and a deteriorating fiscal situation, increased external trade presents the best opportunity to save India’s economy and create large numbers of jobs for our youth and women in the changing global environment. India requires not only friendly connections with states on both sides of the new divide but also a stable and established global economic climate to make the most of this potential.
Following Is A Opinionated Piece By Former Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh, which has been published by The Hindu, inputs in this report taken from the same
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