The BJP will lose more than Shivsena if the Yuti is dissolved. The
bargaining power of Uddhav Thackeray is dependent on this very aspect.
The No-confidence Motion debate in the Lok Sabha remained controversial for two reasons. One, Rahul Gandhi’s unexpected hug and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s snub to PM Modi. Shivsena withdrawing its support to the government in the No-confidence motion debate was as unexpected and shocking as Rahul Gandhi’s hug. Though BJP won the No-confidence vote without Shiv Sena’s support, there was no doubt that Sena’s move could prove as a last wrench to the already severed ties of the allies.
The weekend after the Lok Sabha showdown went without any flutter, only to come across as the calm before the storm. On Sunday, BJP National President Amit Shah visited Mumbai for the party’s ‘Sampark for Samarthan’ Campaign. However, according to the reports, he also asked the party cadre to be prepared to fight the Lok Sabha election without any alliance in Maharashtra. Soon after the reports came out Saamana, a mouthpiece of Shivsena published an interview of Uddhav Thackeray slamming the BJP titled, “Now we don’t need any gun, the prey is exhausted.”
On the surface, the statement may seem just another word-play but it has indeed more to reveal, come to think of it. Since 2014 Maharashtra Assembly Elections, Shivsena and BJP’s relations have remained similar to frenemies. It was only last year during the Dasara Melava, that Shivsena chief Uddhav Thackeray announced that the Maratha party will contest the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha Elections alone. With this announcement, it was obvious for people to expect that Sena will quit the NDA and govt. However, it did not happen. On the contrary, Shivsena stayed in alliance with BJP in state and center as well, while criticizing its every move. When Sena supported BJP and then decided to abstain from the No-confidence motion debate, the party came under fire for its confusion and contradictions.
Yet, reading between the lines can make us understand that it was not confusion but the precision with which Uddhav Thackeray has been playing his cards. His strategy is exactly what he said in the interview: to exhaust the prey. Let us understand it in detail.
In more than two decades of Yuti between Shivsena and BJP, the former has always played a part of Big Brother. It was Sena founder Bal Thackeray who nurtured and helped the BJP grow in Maharashtra. The initial BJP squad from Maharashtra be it Pramod Mahajan or Gopinath Munde treated Shivsena as the elder brother. However, the roles were reversed after 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Modi wave swept the country. In Maharashtra, BJP won 23 seats while Shivsena won only 18 seats. During assembly elections, citing the greater number of BJP, the party insisted that the CM face will be from the BJP. As we all know, this irked Uddhav Thackeray who was on the waiting list for CM seat.
Many times Uddhav Thackeray has said that he would like to be the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. The dream remained unfulfilled in 2014. However, the Thackeray junior hasn’t given up on the dream yet and all the bickering with BJP is motivated by the same.
If Uddhav Thackeray can be Chief Minister of Maharashtra in only two circumstances. One, if the party aligns with Congress and NCP and takes outside support from them. However, in this scenario, Uddhav Thackeray will become a stooge in the hands of Congress and NCP. Now, the party is left with another option i.e. continuing with BJP. However, Uddhav Thackeray knows it very well neither can he single-handedly win the elections nor the BJP will agree to declare him CM face of Yuti with the current strength in the assembly.
Thus, Shivsena is constantly trying to destabilize the BJP government and what better way of doing it than hitting where it hurts the most? It was the “Modi wave” that took away the role of Big brother from Shivsena. But four years into the Modi government, it has been proven that the Modi wave has already faded. Even in Maharashtra, the BJP has upset several sections of the electorate. The Fadnavis government has not only invited the wrath of Farmers but also of Marathas and Dhanagars who are demanding reservations.
The BJP is losing the grip on the ground. If nothing changes drastically in favor of BJP, the party is set to lose the PM post. As our Survey also predicted, if the party gets seats less than 230, then it will need allies to breach the majority mark. The allies, however, will not go with BJP with Modi as a Prime Minister. Sena is attacking Modi and weakening BJP’s allies base at this crucial juncture. TDP has already left the NDA camp and jumped the opposition boat. BJP cannot afford to lose Shivsena now. The modern-day Chanakya Amit Shah knows that the BJP will lose more than Shivsena if the Yuti is dissolved. Sena’s bargaining power is dependent on this very aspect. For BJP, trading CM post to Uddhav Thackeray for Modi’s PM post will be the only viable option. The Sena is attempting to exhaust the prey so that the blood is not in his hands.
Even though only six months are remaining for the next Lok Sabha elections, Shivsena is keeping BJP in a fix barring it from drafting a particular strategy for the state. As said earlier, Sena withdrawing from No-confidence motion was the biggest trigger before the big battle of 2019. Whether the strategy will succeed or not is something for all of us to look forward to in the upcoming months.
Kerala Floods: Is our disaster response system flawed?
The Kerala floods is a grim reminder that India’s disaster management policy is flawed.
Amidst the ongoing rescue operation in Kerala, Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted an aerial survey of the state. The southern state is suffering from the worst ever deluge since 1924. The catastrophic monsoon rain has wrecked a havoc in the state with several districts of the state submerging in the water. The state has suffered losses to the tune of 19000 crores while the human casualty in the devastating Kerala Floods has reached 324.
The Kerala floods is a grim reminder that India’s disaster management policy is flawed. While the centre and states are trying their best to carry out the disaster relief work, the framework has restricted them on many fronts. In the wake of 2013 Uttarakhand floods that took as many as 5000 lives and Jammu floods in which as many as 300 were declared dead; the government of India launched the National Disaster Management Plan in June 2016. The plan was drafted ten long years after the Disaster Management Act came into force.
The National Disaster Management Plan or NDMP was aimed at making India disaster resilient and reducing the loss of human lives and assets significantly. According to the government, the NDMP was based on Sendai framework which had also been adopted by the UN member-states at the third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2015 in Japan’s Sendai.
The plan is said to cover all stages of disaster management- Right from prevention, mitigation, response to recovery. The official statement also said that it would provide a framework to reduce bureaucracy and provide for horizontal and vertical integration among all the agencies and departments of the government. The plan is based on the four priority themes of the Sendai Framework that are- A. understanding the disaster risk B. improving disaster risk governance, C. investing in disaster risk reduction and D. disaster preparedness.
Though it says that the plan has been developed on the lines of Sendai framework, there are several flaws in the NDMP. First and foremost is the general and vague identification of activities in case of disaster. The plan also fails to set up pragmatic guidelines for the disaster relief. The major problem as pointed out by PG Dhar Chakrabarti, The Energy and Resources Institute fellow is, it does not set up a particular target or clear goals with respect to resource mobilisation and implementation of disaster relief activities. He further points out that the plan does not provide a particular time frame for undertaking these activities beyond vaguely prescribing that these must be taken up in short, medium, mid- and long-term basis. To sum up, the NDMP leaves many loose ends, similar to the NDRF guidelines.
The NDMP mentions under the para 4.6 mentions that the “Central Government supplements their (state government) efforts through logistic and financial support during ‘severe’ disasters as requested by the State Governments.” However, it does not provide any parameters to determine what situation has to be considered severe. This kills a lot of time which is especially precious during large-scale disasters. By the time help arrives, the damage would have been done.
This again takes us to the question of whether India is equipped in case of massive scale natural/ manmade disasters. The answer is No. The most perfect example of this is the Kerala Floods. The disaster relief work faced hurdles due to non-availability of the base to land for choppers/Helicopters. The bad weather and consistent rain hampered the relief work. In such a situation, boats were the only option for evacuation. However, as pointed out by Kerala MLA from Chengannur, Saji Cherian, the NDRF boats were useless as they were too small. He said, “If the fishermen had not arrived in time, then it would have been a catastrophe.” There was also a huge gap between the demands made by the state government and assistance provided by the centre to carry out relief work.
Kerala floods are just a recent example. There are many such incidents in the past devastating enough for the Indian government to realise that India’s disaster preparedness has still a long way to go.
Kerala Flood: a grim reminder of why India must revise the NDRF guidelines
The NDRF procedure of assessment not only neglects the fact that during natural disasters like Kerala Flood, time is most precious.
If you want to see what devastation really is, look at Kerala. The southern state which is also popularly known as God’s own country is suffering from the worst ever flooding since 1924. The catastrophic monsoon rain has wrecked a havoc in the state with several districts of the state submerging in water. The human casualty has reached 164, while many stranded people are turning to social media to ask for help.
Over the past week, Kerala lost 8,316 crores worth of economic assets. The unremitting showers led to a horrific landslide that damaged many houses, roads and other infrastructure. As many as 60,000 people have been shifted to makeshift relief camps. However, as the downpour continues the water has started entering into some of the relief camps. Though the intensity of the rainfall has receded, according to the India Meteorological Department it may increase again till August 17. Following the prediction, the state has issued a red alert in all thirteen districts except Kasaragod.
The incessant rainfall has led to filling of most of the water reservoirs in the state. However, as the water level reached the danger mark, the gates of reservoirs in the Idukki system, a giant hydroelectric project, and several other dams were opened which swamped the downstream habitations alongside the rivers.
In the cases such as this where the public life at large is affected by the cataclysmic crisis, the government is the insurer of the last resort for the citizens. Over the past few weeks, several legislators from the state have demanded that the crisis should be declared as the National Calamity. A fresh request was made for the same by VS Achuthanandan, Administrative Reforms Commission chairman. Last month, CPM leader P Karunakaran had raised this issue in the Lok Sabha.
He informed the Lower House of parliament that this is one of the worst floods in the history of Kerala considering the large-scale devastation across various parts of the state. He had even said that centre should provide funds beyond what is due under the NDRF. The centre did, however, release interim relief of 100 crores for the state but the state government retorted back saying that for the damage and destruction that scales up to almost 8000 crores of loss, the relief amount is meagre.
Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac in a tweet lashed out saying that the Immediate mitigation and rectification expenditure to the state is around Rs. 3,000 crores. “The central grant precious Rs. 100. And that too if it is from regular disaster management fund due to Kerala, I don’t know!” he tweeted.
Total loss of floods to Kerala around ₹8000 crores. Immediate mitigation and rectification expenditure to the state around ₹3000.And the central grant precious ₹100. And that too if it is from regular disaster management fund due to Kerala , I donot know!
— Thomas Isaac (@drthomasisaac) August 13, 2018
His response came after Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh on Sunday announced that the Centre will be granting 100 crores interim relief to the state. Rajnath Singh tweeted, “I understand the suffering of the people of Kerala from the present crisis. Since the assessment of the damage will take time, I hereby announce immediate relief as an advance of Rs. 100 crores,” the home minister had said on Sunday.
The floods in Kerala have caused severe damage to crops & infrastructue. It has also caused loss of precious lives and forced thousands to take shelter in relief camp. We are providing all possible assistance to the state. Centre to provide additional 100 crores to Kerala. pic.twitter.com/Ufq58HCEq0
— Rajnath Singh (@rajnathsingh) August 12, 2018
Though natural disasters occur unannounced and there is no measure to speculate on the amount of damage it can cause, the Indian government has a framework in place regarding the relief work. The legal framework deals with the responsibilities of state as well as central governments while carrying out relief works. It lays down guidelines as to when the centre can intervene in the relief work and when the state has to fare on its own.
The guidelines on constitution and administration of the state disaster response fund and national disaster response fund issued by the Ministry of Home affairs in 2010 lists the procedure to be followed for the assessment of the disasters.
According to the guidelines, once the state government requests for central government’s help in case the SDRF isn’t sufficient, the memorandum first goes through preliminary examination. If it reveals that there are enough funds in the SDRF then the state is advised accordingly. In case, the preliminary examination finds that the state needs assistance then a central team is put on the job of on the spot assessment. The report of the central team is then examined by the National Executive Committee which is then sent to a High-Level Committee. This committee approves the quantum of immediate relief.
Furthermore, only the natural disasters that are considered to be of “severe nature” by the Indian government qualify for the relief fund by the Centre. Here, the guidelines leave a loose end as to what should and should not be considered as a severity by the Indian government. This also means unless it is assessed that the disaster is of severe nature- the process for which is lengthy and time-consuming, central help will not arrive.
The procedure of assessment not only neglects the fact that in case of natural disasters time is most precious but also withdraws from the reality that it risks thousands of lives by indulging in bureaucracy. The delayed action cost innocent civilians their lives as it happened in case of Kerala floods or even during cyclone Ockhi.
You can find the entire document here: Guidelines for National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF)
The centre though did not declare it as a “national calamity” as requested by Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu but acknowledged the cyclone as “rare and extraordinary”, which again has different norms. This leads to the killing of valuable time. By the time Centre and state resolve as to who would perform what responsibility, the damage would have done. What can be the more apt example of this than the 2014 Jammu Floods or the 2013 Uttarakhand deluge? The relief did come but it was already late and the scale of human and infrastructure casualty has gone up.
The governments cannot divorce itself from the fact that mere providing relief is not enough. Providing it on time has to be the priority.
Remembering Atal Bihari Vajpayee: journey of a statesman through pictures
Remembering Atal Bihari Vajpayee, perhaps the greatest statesman India has witnessed, we look back at the different stages of his life.
It was the April of 1980 when a new party was born on India’s political map- The Bharatiya Janata Party. “Andhera Chhatega, Suraj Nikalega, Kamal Khilega.” This is how the party chief Atal Bihari Vajpayee introduced this new political party to India. True to his words, the dream was realized more than 15 years later. The victory of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and that of BJP was significant. His government was the first non-Congress government in India’s 50 years long political history to complete its term. But that’s not the only reason why the former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee will be immortalized in India’s political history.
For the parliamentarian who had spent more than 4 decades inside the temple of democracy, the praise- “right man in the wrong party” wasn’t new. Some even described him as the “Nehru of the right”. He even mentioned this in his speech in the Lok Sabha before the trust vote in 1998. However, he managed to break the spell and the very next year, NDA led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s BJP swung back to power.
The journey of Atal Bihari Vajpayee is as mesmerizing as it is inspiring. Remembering perhaps the greatest statesman India has witnessed, we look back at the different stages of his life. A journey down memory lane through pictures:
- The Angry Young man
Atal Bihari Vajpayee was born to Krishna Devi and Krishna Bihari Vajpayee on 25 December 1924 in Gwalior. His father was a poet and a schoolmaster in his hometown. Vajpayee did his schooling and higher education in Gwalior itself. He attended Gwalior’s Victoria College (now Laxmi Bai College) and graduated with distinction in Hindi, English, and Sanskrit. He completed his post-graduation with an M.A. in Political Science from DAV College, Kanpur, and was awarded a first-class degree.
There is an interesting story about his student life, which people may rarely know. Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his father studied together in the college. Krishna Bihari Vajpayee joined the law course after his retirement from service. The son-father duo attending college together had left many amusing.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee had 3 brothers and 3 sisters. All of them got married. But when his turn came, he categorically rejected the idea saying that he has vowed to devote his life for the service of his motherland. His activism started with Arya Kumar Sabha. Later, he also joined the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in 1939. Even at that time, the wordsmith in him peeped out in the form of poems and speeches that were inspiring.
Vajpayee was inspired by the freedom struggle and actively took part in anti-British protests as a minor. He even spent twenty-four days in jail. The political master was taking shape during these early days.
The Bharatiya Jan Sangh days:
In 1948, the RSS was banned for its alleged role in the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi. In 1951, he was seconded by the RSS, along with Deendayal Upadhyaya, to work for the newly formed Bharatiya Jana Sangh, a Hindu right-wing political party associated with the RSS. He was appointed as a national secretary of the party in charge of the Northern region, based in Delhi. He soon became a follower and aide of party leader Shyama Prasad Mukherjee. In 1954, Vajpayee was with Mukherjee when he went on a fast-unto-death in Kashmir to protest against the perceived inferior treatment of non-Kashmiri Indian visitors to the state.
First Lok Sabha win:
In 1957, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was elected from Balrampur. Coming from a small party against the Congress in the heydays of Pandit Nehru, Vajpayee performed exceptionally well as a debutant parliamentarian. He soon became the face of Jana Sangh inside and outside the parliament with his oratory skills par excellence. This young parliamentarian raging with passion soon caught the attention of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. Pandit Nehru was so enamored with his fluency in Hindi that he had even predicted that Vajpayee will be the prime minister of India in future. While introducing Vajpayee to a foreign dignitary, Nehru had said, “This young man one day will become the country’s prime minister.”
After the death of Deendayal Upadhyaya, the responsibility to lead Jana Sangh fell on the shoulders of Vajpayee. He became the national president of the Jana Sangh in 1968. This was also a time when the Jana Sangh saw the beginning of the rise of the party to national prominence.
The External Affairs Minister in Janata Party government:
During Janata Party government days, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was sworn in as the External Affairs Minister. He was also the first non-Congress external affairs minister to attend UNGA. It was a historical day as well. Vajpayee delivered a speech in Hindi at the UN General Assembly, raising India’s stand on key issues like nuclear disarmament, state-sponsored terrorism, and reforms at the world body. “I am a newcomer to the United Nations, but India is not, having been associated actively with the Organisation from its very inception,” he said.
“As one who has been a parliamentarian in my own country for two decades and more, I feel a special sense of exhilaration in attending this assembly of nations for the first time,” Vajpayee said in the historic address. It was the first time that an Indian leader had delivered the speech in Hindi at the UNGA as other Indian leaders had opted to speak in English, the dominant language at the forum.
Formation of Bharatiya Janata Party:
After the Janata Party banned dual membership of RSS and the party, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani along with some leaders broke away from the party and established Bharatiya Janata Party in April 1980. Presiding over the first session after the formation of the party, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had said that the post of the BJP president is not a piece of jewelry to boast about. “This post is not a prestige, it is a challenge,” he said.
At this session, Vajpayee ji resolved to fulfill the dreams of Mahatma Gandhi and Jay Prakash Narayan. While dismissing the politics of manipulation, Vajpayee ji had said that the BJP would do politics related to land, politics in political parties, politicians, to restore the lost faith of the people, which was a big thing in itself. It was at this meeting that he said, “Andhera Chhatega, Suraj Nikalega, Kamal Khilega.”
When PV Narasimha Rao trusted the opposition leader:
India faced a big challenge when Pakistan on 27 February 1994, moved to UN Human Rights Commission and tabled the resolution through OIC that condemned India for violation of human rights in Kashmir. If the resolution would have passed, India would have been put on UNSC economic sanctions. Faced with challenges on several fronts, PM Narasimha Rao took the matter into his own hands. The same month he flew from Davos (where he was attending World Economic Forum) to Germany.
He formed a team of delegates all carefully chosen to represent India. Despite being the leader of the opposition, the then PM PV Narasimha Rao trusted Atal Bihari Vajpayee and included him in the delegation to represent India at UN. The delegates also included Salman Khurshid, E. Ahmad, National Conference head Farooq Abdullah and Hamid Ansari. It was the time when keeping the political differences aside, Atal Bihari Vajpayee agreed to Rao’s decision. This also proves the “Nation first” policy of Vajpayee.
In Prime Minister’s chair:
Victory in the Gujarat and Maharashtra assembly elections in March 1995 and a good performance in the Karnataka assembly elections 1994 led BJP to a greater political prominence. During a BJP conference in Mumbai in November 1995, BJP President L. K. Advani declared that Vajpayee would become the PM candidate of the party. Subsequently, the BJP won the May 1996 parliamentary elections.
Though BJP was the single largest party, it could not gather the majority and Atal Bihari Vajpayee had to resign. The elections were again conducted in 1998. The BJP again won and this time with allied parties formed the government. However, it only lasted for 13 months until AIADMK withdrew its support. In 1999 general elections the BJP-led NDA won 303 seats out of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, in the aftermath of the Kargil operations. This time Atal Bihari Vajpayee completed a full term as a Prime Minister.
In May 1998, India conducted five underground nuclear tests in Pokhran desert in Rajasthan, 24 yrs after India conducted its first nuclear test (Smiling Buddha) in 1974. This test is called Pokhran-II. The tests were held just a month after the government had been in power. Vajpayee has been the strongest proponent of India as a nuclear power. In 1964 he had said in the parliament, “The answer to an atom bomb is an atom bomb, nothing else.” When he took office in 1996, he began taking steps in the direction of nuclear test. However, before the plan could materialize, his government fell within 13 days. When the BJP government came back to power in March 1998, with Vajpayee at its helm again, the party veteran and prime minister began laying the ground for the nuclear tests. On 8 April, he summoned Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) chief R Chidambaram and DRDO chief APJ Abdul Kalam to give them the thumbs-up for the tests.
The entire operation was conducted in such high secrecy that nobody except the aforementioned and home minister LK Advani knew about it. Defense Minister George Fernandes was told about the tests on 9 May. The next day, the three service chiefs and foreign secretary were informed.
The Lahore summit:
In late 1998 and early 1999, Vajpayee began a push for a full-scale diplomatic peace process with Pakistan. With the historic inauguration of the Delhi-Lahore bus service in February 1999, Vajpayee initiated a new peace process aimed towards permanently resolving the Kashmir dispute and other conflicts with Pakistan. The resultant Lahore Declaration espoused a commitment to dialogue, expanded trade relations and mutual friendship and envisaged a goal of denuclearised South Asia. This eased the tension created by the 1998 nuclear tests, not only between the two nations but also in South Asia and the rest of the world.
During Kargil War, Operation Vijay was launched in June 1999. Indian military fighting thousands of militants and soldiers in the midst of heavy artillery shelling and while facing extremely cold weather, snow and treacherous terrain at the high altitude. Over 500 Indian soldiers were killed in the three-month-long Kargil War, and it is estimated around 600-4,000 Pakistani militants and soldiers died as well. India pushed back the Pakistani militants and Northern Light Infantry soldiers. Almost 70% of the territory was recaptured by India.
Vajpayee sent a “secret letter” to US President Bill Clinton that if Pakistani infiltrators did not withdraw from the Indian territory, “we will get them out, one way or the other” – meaning he did not rule out crossing the Line of Control (LoC), or was the use of nuclear weapons.
Though the Vajpayee government was uprooted by the Congress-led UPA in 2004, Atal Bihari Vajpayee still remains one of the last politicians in India who command respect across the party lines.
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