The BJP will lose more than Shivsena if the Yuti is dissolved. The
bargaining power of Uddhav Thackeray is dependent on this very aspect.
The No-confidence Motion debate in the Lok Sabha remained controversial for two reasons. One, Rahul Gandhi’s unexpected hug and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s snub to PM Modi. Shivsena withdrawing its support to the government in the No-confidence motion debate was as unexpected and shocking as Rahul Gandhi’s hug. Though BJP won the No-confidence vote without Shiv Sena’s support, there was no doubt that Sena’s move could prove as a last wrench to the already severed ties of the allies.
The weekend after the Lok Sabha showdown went without any flutter, only to come across as the calm before the storm. On Sunday, BJP National President Amit Shah visited Mumbai for the party’s ‘Sampark for Samarthan’ Campaign. However, according to the reports, he also asked the party cadre to be prepared to fight the Lok Sabha election without any alliance in Maharashtra. Soon after the reports came out Saamana, a mouthpiece of Shivsena published an interview of Uddhav Thackeray slamming the BJP titled, “Now we don’t need any gun, the prey is exhausted.”
On the surface, the statement may seem just another word-play but it has indeed more to reveal, come to think of it. Since 2014 Maharashtra Assembly Elections, Shivsena and BJP’s relations have remained similar to frenemies. It was only last year during the Dasara Melava, that Shivsena chief Uddhav Thackeray announced that the Maratha party will contest the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha Elections alone. With this announcement, it was obvious for people to expect that Sena will quit the NDA and govt. However, it did not happen. On the contrary, Shivsena stayed in alliance with BJP in state and center as well, while criticizing its every move. When Sena supported BJP and then decided to abstain from the No-confidence motion debate, the party came under fire for its confusion and contradictions.
Yet, reading between the lines can make us understand that it was not confusion but the precision with which Uddhav Thackeray has been playing his cards. His strategy is exactly what he said in the interview: to exhaust the prey. Let us understand it in detail.
In more than two decades of Yuti between Shivsena and BJP, the former has always played a part of Big Brother. It was Sena founder Bal Thackeray who nurtured and helped the BJP grow in Maharashtra. The initial BJP squad from Maharashtra be it Pramod Mahajan or Gopinath Munde treated Shivsena as the elder brother. However, the roles were reversed after 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Modi wave swept the country. In Maharashtra, BJP won 23 seats while Shivsena won only 18 seats. During assembly elections, citing the greater number of BJP, the party insisted that the CM face will be from the BJP. As we all know, this irked Uddhav Thackeray who was on the waiting list for CM seat.
Many times Uddhav Thackeray has said that he would like to be the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. The dream remained unfulfilled in 2014. However, the Thackeray junior hasn’t given up on the dream yet and all the bickering with BJP is motivated by the same.
If Uddhav Thackeray can be Chief Minister of Maharashtra in only two circumstances. One, if the party aligns with Congress and NCP and takes outside support from them. However, in this scenario, Uddhav Thackeray will become a stooge in the hands of Congress and NCP. Now, the party is left with another option i.e. continuing with BJP. However, Uddhav Thackeray knows it very well neither can he single-handedly win the elections nor the BJP will agree to declare him CM face of Yuti with the current strength in the assembly.
Thus, Shivsena is constantly trying to destabilize the BJP government and what better way of doing it than hitting where it hurts the most? It was the “Modi wave” that took away the role of Big brother from Shivsena. But four years into the Modi government, it has been proven that the Modi wave has already faded. Even in Maharashtra, the BJP has upset several sections of the electorate. The Fadnavis government has not only invited the wrath of Farmers but also of Marathas and Dhanagars who are demanding reservations.
The BJP is losing the grip on the ground. If nothing changes drastically in favor of BJP, the party is set to lose the PM post. As our Survey also predicted, if the party gets seats less than 230, then it will need allies to breach the majority mark. The allies, however, will not go with BJP with Modi as a Prime Minister. Sena is attacking Modi and weakening BJP’s allies base at this crucial juncture. TDP has already left the NDA camp and jumped the opposition boat. BJP cannot afford to lose Shivsena now. The modern-day Chanakya Amit Shah knows that the BJP will lose more than Shivsena if the Yuti is dissolved. Sena’s bargaining power is dependent on this very aspect. For BJP, trading CM post to Uddhav Thackeray for Modi’s PM post will be the only viable option. The Sena is attempting to exhaust the prey so that the blood is not in his hands.
Even though only six months are remaining for the next Lok Sabha elections, Shivsena is keeping BJP in a fix barring it from drafting a particular strategy for the state. As said earlier, Sena withdrawing from No-confidence motion was the biggest trigger before the big battle of 2019. Whether the strategy will succeed or not is something for all of us to look forward to in the upcoming months.
Kerala By-polls: Kerala floods took a center-stage over Sabarimala issue
Though, the number of seats put BJP at the bottom of the race, come to think of it, the real loser here is the Congress-led UDF. The Congress and its allies bagged 11 wards in Kerala bypolls as against the 16 they held earlier.
The results of the by-polls held in Kerala have come as a shocker to everyone, but the ruling Left government. On November 30, by-polls were held in 39 local bodies including 27 panchayat wards, five block panchayat wards, six municipality wards and one corporation ward. The CPI(M)-led LDF won a majority of the seats i.e. 21 seats. Whereas, the Congress-led UDF bagged 12 seats. The BJP, which was eyeing on mighty political dividends after the recent Sabarimala protest that rocked the state, however, was limited to only two seats.
Now, we do realize that the by-polls held in just 39 seats cannot spell out the mood of the entire state but the elections do hold a significance as it was for the first time after the Sabarimala controversy the state was going for polling. Those who have closely followed the recent political developments in the state can bear the testimony of the fact that it was probably rare in Kerala that the Hindu anger erupted at such a large scale.
For the saffron party BJP, which has been trying to create a base in the coastal state, Sabarimala issue ticked every box. It was related to Hindus and even led to unprecedented widespread outrage. The party sensing the “Golden opportunity” launched aggressive protests targeting the left-led government. Even then, it did not turn into expected political dividends.
On the contrary, the CPI(M) which had come under fire from the majority of the Hindu society over the implementation of Supreme Court order of allowing women in Sabarimala, expected an electoral backlash. However, the party ended up winning the majority of the seats.
Let us first check the resulting outcome:
Among all the 39 wards, the BJP has increased vote share only in a few of them. It has lost its sitting ward at Parappukkara in Thrissur district to the Left. Now, Thrissur is where the BJP is hoping for a significant gain in vote share in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP could get only 19 votes in two wards in Pathanamthitta district, where the temple is located. The party candidate got just 12 votes in the Palakkad ward of the Pandalam municipality, which has been the epicentre of the Sabarimala protests. the BJP candidate secured only seven votes in the Kulasekharapatnam ward.
Though, the number of seats put BJP at the bottom of the race, come to think of it, the real loser here is the Congress-led UDF. The Congress and its allies bagged 11 wards in Kerala bypolls as against the 16 they held earlier. The tally has now come down to 11.
The LDF wrested five seats from the UDF and one from the BJP (Parappukkara in Thrissur district). The two seats the BJP won were both earlier held by the UDF.
If we compare the votes polled for the parties, BJP’s votes came down from 11,118 to 9869 whereas UDF’s vote came down from 26,722 to 26,092. Though UDF’s vote difference is less than that of BJP, the party lost 5 seats.
What could have been the possible reason for it?
The credit of LDF’s win goes to the BJP. As observed in 2016 assembly elections too, as the majority shifted to BJP, the minorities in the state shifted to LDF. This has taken away UDF’s vote bank which is based upon both the majority Hindus and other minority communities.
As the polarization in the state peaks, a significant part of Hindu votes backing the UDF has shifted to BJP. While a portion of the minority has leaned towards the left.
For the left after Sabarimala, the polls were a tough task but the party sailed through it. Though it would be too early for BJP to score major victories in the state, if the trend continues, the BJP may soon replace Congress as the main opposition party in the state. Which is not a small achievement for the marginalized party.
As for Kerala’s voter population, the floods and state’s well-handling of the disaster made the main point of contention than Sabarimala.
From Indira Gandhi to Vajpayee: How Kartarpur Corridor remained a non-starter
For many Sikh devotees on the Indian side, Kartarpur corridor had been in eyesight but still like a distant dream for 70 years.
“Jo bole so Nihaal, Sat Shri Akal”, the chants reverberated the Attari-Wagah border on Wednesday as hundreds of Sikh pilgrims marched towards the holy shrine of Kartarpur. It was the first time since the partition that Sikhs on the Indian side of the border could walk up to the Kartarpur Sahib Gurudwara in Pakistan located just 4 km away from the Dera Nanak Sahib. A 65-year old Sikh man from Fatehgarh Choorian who was among the first few to cross the border and visit the shrine was smiles talking about the historic event. “I am happy that Kartarpur corridor is finally a reality,” he said exuding the excitement.
For many Sikhs like him, Kartarpur shrine had been in eyesight but still like a distant dream for 70 years. On Wednesday, the wait finally came to a positive end.
What is Kartarpur Sahib?
For Sikhs across the world, the Kartarpur Sahib gurudwara holds huge significance. It is the place where Guru Nanak after a long pilgrimage of almost three decades finally decided to settle. It is believed that Guru Nanak spent his last years in Kartarpur farming and spreading the message of peace. He lived here for 17 years and before his death, appointed his disciple Bhai Lehna (Guru Angad) as the next guru. In 1947, India was divided into two and the Kartarpur Sahib gurudwara went to the Pakistan side of the border. Currently, it is situated in near the city of Narowal alongside the Attari-Wagah border.
The main complex of Kartarpur Sahib has a grave and Samadhi of Guru Nanak. The folktale behind it goes like this:
After the death of Guru Nanak, an argument sparked between his Hindu and Muslim devotees over the funeral rites. The Hindus wanted to cremate him while the Muslims wanted a burial. It was almost night when both the arguing group decided that the matter should be resolved the next day. However, when they woke up the next day, they found a pile of flowers lying at the place where the body was. Not reaching a consensus, they divided the flowers among the two groups. While the Muslims buried them, Hindus cremated them. Thus, the Kartarpur Sahib has a grave and a samadhi.
The pilgrimage begins at the Dera Baba Nanak in Gurdaspur in Punjab. Situated only 1 km from India-Pakistan border, Kartarpur Sahib can be seen from the Border with naked eyes at a distance of about 4-5 km. Since the partition pilgrims used binoculars for Darshan.
The Sikh pilgrims separated from their holiest site by the border had been a sore spot. But why did the issue take so long for two neighbouring nations to solve?
From Indira Gandhi to Atal Bihari Vajpayee:
The Kartarpur corridor which was officially announced by the Pakistan premier Imran Khan almost a week ago was first proposed by the former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He had ideated the corridor during the historic 1999 Delhi to Lahore bus diplomacy between the two nations. Pakistan too had agreed to allow Sikh pilgrims from India to visit the shrine visa-free (and without a passport) by constructing a bridge from the India side of the border to the shrine.
However, the thaw between the two countries proved to be short-lived. The hostilities along the border increased and eventually led to Kargil war. These developments put an end to the talks. Though, the earliest reference to the Kartarpur corridor is found during Vajpayee’s Lahore trip for the peace initiative, it was in 1969 that the issue had first drawn the attention of the Indian government.
The year 1969 marked the 500th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak. During the celebrations, the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi promised the Punjab government that land-swap would be done with Pakistan for accessing the Kartarpur Sahib. Indira Gandhi said the Centre would approach the Pakistan Government for the exchange of Kartarpur Sahib with an adjoining Indian area. She also gave an assurance on granting free visas for visitors to Nankana Sahib on the Indian side of the border.
However, the assurance faded into oblivion after the Indo-Pak war in the subsequent year following the creation of Bangladesh.
The two times, when the access to Kartarpur Sahib actually came into consideration, the countries saw derailed relationship with a streak of violence breaking on the border.
On Wednesday, Pakistan PM Imran Khan furthering the message of the peace said, “If you one step forward, we will take two.” Before that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi too backed the initiative. He even expressed the possibility that the corridor could be the “Berlin Wall” moment for India and Pakistan. “Who would have thought that Berlin wall can be destroyed? With the blessings of Guru Nanak, even Kartarpur corridor can be a medium to join people from across the border,” Modi said.
While Union Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal at the Kartarpur corridor launch ceremony reiterated PM Modi’s message, external affairs minister added a prompt reminder back home that the corridor won’t be a sole consideration in resuming the talks between the two countries. Some also fear the Khalistani threat returning to Punjab with the proposed corridor.
Whether the corridor becomes a harbinger in bringing the derailed Indo-Pak talks back on track not is for the two governments to decide. But, one thing is for sure, the Kartarpur corridor presents a rare example where religion poses the possibility to unite two divided countries.
In Madhya Pradesh’s tribal belt, ‘Indira Mai’ keeps Congress’ hope alive
Even three generations later, Indira Gandhi commands an unparalleled respect among the tribal population of Madhya Pradesh.
The polling for the Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election will be held on November 28. While the various political leaders including Congress President Rahul Gandhi and BJP President Amit Shah are trying hard to ace the ‘I-Am-More-Hindu-than-you’ race, the real path to the state’s Vidhan Sabha passes through its vast tribal belt. In Madhya Pradesh, the tribal population accounts for 21% of the entire state population. It is also the highest tribal population in the country.
Electorally the tribal community is more significant and out of the total 230 assembly seats, 47 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. More than 50% of the state’s tribal population is concentrated in Dhar, Jhabua, and Mandla districts while Khargaon, Chhindwara, Seoni, Sidhi, Singrauli, and Shahdol districts have 30–50% population that is of tribes. According to the 2011 census, the Adivasi population in Madhya Pradesh was 73.34 million. There were 46 recognized Scheduled Tribes and three of them have been identified as “Special Primitive Tribal Groups” in the State.
Thus, it wasn’t much surprised when the current Chief Minister of the state Shivraj Singh Chauhan showered the community with promises of housing or even beat drums dancing with the community to woo their votes. Congress, on the other hand, promised the community of land rights. Rahul Gandhi even addressed a meeting of the Adivasi Ekta Parishad at the Ambedkar Stadium in Morena in October. Just in time for the election, the party also successfully managed to rope in former Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti national convener Hiralal Alawa to contest Manawar seat on Congress ticket.
The Tribals and BJP:
BJP which is widely considered as an upper caste party has been successful in bagging the tribal votes since last one decade. It was in 2003 assembly polls that the BJP won 67 SC/ST seats. In the 2008 assembly election, the BJP won 54 of these seats. In 2013, BJP performed exceedingly well on the SC/ST reserved seats. Out of total 47 ST seats, it emerged victorious on 31.
A major part of BJP’s successful penetration in the tribal region has to be credited to its ideological parent RSS. The Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram played a significant role in diverting the tribal vote to BJP with their anti-conversion operation ahead of 2013 assembly elections. However, this time the fear of annulment of the SC/ST Act seems to have ricocheted in the minds of the tribal community. Despite the sops offered by the ‘Mama’ Shivraj Chouhan, the tribal belt has seemingly made up its mind to vote BJP out.
Congress trying to woo Tribals:
The Congress has sensed the anger among the Tribal community against the Shivraj Singh government. Even if the party manages to win 40 ST seats and 20 SC seats, it can easily have an edge over the BJP. The Congress manifesto also promises lease rights to Adivasis and nutrition allowance for most backward Adivasi groups being raised to ₹1,500 from the existing ₹1,000. For years, the tribal belt has remained Congress’ bastion though, after the decade-long rule of Digvijaya Singh as CM, the SC/ST community showed a significant shift towards the BJP. But the Congress is hopeful for the expected homecoming of the tribal voters in 2018 elections. The party has also used the ‘Indira’ card to woo the voters.
The ‘Indira’ factor:
Almost a week ago, at a rally in Jhabua, Jyotiraditya Scindia was addressing the crowd. To the 7000 odd people who attended the rally he appealed to vote for the Congress describing it as “ye Indira Mai ki party hai (this is mother Indira Gandhi’s party).” The party realises that even three generations later, Indira Gandhi commands an unparalleled respect among the tribals.
So much so that the tribals of Padalya village in Khargaon district worship her as ‘Indira Mai’. Moreover, the village has a temple of Indira Gandhi. Since the last 30 years, there has been not one day when the worshipping has stopped. Even today, the chants of ‘Goddess Mother Indira’ echo in the village. The temple was constructed after the death of Indira Gandhi in 1984.
While most of India remembers Emergency as the black chapter of the Indian Democracy, the tribals in this area swear by Indira Gandhi’s twenty-point programme. They say that the village got a high school, roads and electricity as part of Indira Gandhi’s’ twenty-point programme. She also helped to make these villages self-sufficient and to repay the loans. The inauguration of the temple was one of the most controversial affairs during 1988. What was remarkable that the inauguration was attended by 30,000 Adivasis.
Even three decades later, it is the ‘Indira Mai’ who has been able to keep the emotional connect between the Congress and Tribals.
Having witnessed the fierce and heated election campaign, it is to be seen who the tribals give their mandate to? What will prevail- Shivraj Mama’s sops or the devotion to Indira Mai?
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