Both the AIADMK and the DMK heaved a sigh of relief over Rajinikanth’s retreat but the BJP was left high and dry. The saffron party had been planning to get a foothold in Tamil Nadu politics courtesy the superstar.
The 2021 electoral battle in Tamil Nadu is going to be a contest between the two major Dravidian parties AIADMK and DMK with the two national players BJP and Congress, watching from the margins.
The BJP is a partner of the ruling All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam while the Congress is an ally of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
Elections for the 234 seat Tamil Nadu Assembly are due in April-May. The political scenario in the southern state was entirely different a few weeks ago as various permutations and combinations were being discussed over a key development scheduled to take place on December 31, 2020.
Popular actor Rajinikanth, who had been planning to take the plunge since 2017, was set to announce his new political party on that date but all excitement fizzled out after he suddenly dropped the idea citing health issues.
Both the AIADMK and the DMK heaved a sigh of relief over Rajinikanth’s retreat but the BJP was left high and dry. The saffron party had been planning to get a foothold in Tamil Nadu politics courtesy the superstar, who had dubbed PM Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah as the modern-day Krishna and Arjun of the Mahabharat fame.
An alignment with Rajinikanth’s party would have given the BJP a better bargaining position vis-à-vis the ruling AIADMK but the saffron party will now have to settle for whatever the regional giant decides for the pact.
The entry of two Tamil cinema superstars Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan in the fray had created a buzz that Tamil Nadu politics was set to move beyond the two traditional Dravidian players and would lead to new political formations. Rajinikanth’s withdrawal ended that possibility.
On his part, Kamal Haasan has been promising the voters a new era of transparent politics but it remains to be seen how much difference his outfit Makkal Nidhi Maiam (MNM) can make in the coming polls.
Formed in 2018, MNM fought the 2019 national elections but got only 3.7 per cent votes. Of late, Haasan has been targeting both DMK and AIADMK over corruption but has promised to bring back the welfare legacy of former chief minister MG Ramachandran, who founded the AIADMK in 1972 and later mentored former chief minister J Jayalalithaa.
The 2016 assembly polls had broken a record of sorts when AIADMK under Jayalalithaa won a second consecutive term.
This time, the ruling party is desperate for a third term but faces a stiff challenge from a resurgent DMK which is counting on the success of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the opposition alliance bagged 31 of the total 39 seats. The DMK won 23 seats while the Congress got 8 seats. The AIADMK got just 1.
Following Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016, the AIADMK had witnessed a bitter power struggle between close aide VK Sasikala and loyalist O Panneerselvam, who became the chief minister.
Panneerselvam had to step down to pave way for Sasikala’s chief ministerial ambitions but her dream was cut short in 2017 by the Supreme Court which upheld an earlier trial court order to send her to jail for four years in a corruption case.
Sasikala then named Jayalalithaa loyalist EK Palaniswami as the new chief minister and expelled Panneerselvam from the party. Months later, Palaniswami brought back Panneerselvam as his deputy in a patch-up move and expelled Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran from the party.
Sasikala’s release this month has given rise to speculation over her future role but the ground situation has changed a lot since 2017 and she may face resistance from both Palaniswami- Panneerselvam duo who have consolidated their position within the government and the party.
In 2017, Dinakaran’s party Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) had won the prestigious RK Nagar by-poll but the party did not do well in the 2019 national elections.
AMMK, which took away around 5 per cent of AIADMK votes, has influence in south Tamil Nadu and can dent the ruling party in the coming polls. There have been some reports of a likely merger with AIADMK but no clarity over the issue.
The DMK too is missing its patriarch M Karunanidhi as incumbent party president MK Stalin faces a challenge from his estranged brother MK Alagiri, who was expelled from the party due to sibling rivalry seven years ago.
Stalin’s recent move to invite Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to a party event drew flak from home-grown Muslim parties Indian Union Muslim League and Manidhaneya Makkal Katchi forcing the DMK leader to drop the plan.
The invite was prompted due to reports that AIMIM was planning to contest 25 seats in the coming polls and could dent the opposition votes like it did in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections.
Also Read: “Can’t Enter Politics”: Rajinikanth Rescinds Political Party Plan
Among the national parties, the Congress has been out of power in the southern state since 1967 but has surprisingly not made any serious attempts to revive the party.
The Congress recently announced jumbo panels in the state but the move drew criticism from Lok Sabha MP Karti Chidambaram, son of former finance minister P Chidambaram.
Karti’s views that such jumbo party panels gave authority to none and did not promote accountability provoked newly-appointed general secretary K Mahendran to hit back saying he got the position because of hard work and not his father’s influence.
The friction between new leaders and those entrenched in the system shows disquiet in the state unit months ahead of the polls.
In 2016, the Congress contested 41 seats as part of an alliance with DMK but could win only 8 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won eight seats largely due to DMK’s influence.
The BJP had won the Kanyakumari seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls but lost it in 2019. The saffron party increased its vote share marginally from 2.8 per cent in 2016 to 3.6 per cent in 2019. In November last the BJP tried to take out a religious march across the state but it did not create much impact due to Covid-19 restrictions.
Indicating a rift between the two allies, the BJP state unit has criticized the AIADMK government’s move to dole out cash Rs 2,500 as a gift to ration cardholders on the occasion of Pongal festival.
Third Front
There is no third front this time but there are several claimants to that slot.
In 2016, the grouping of Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India-Marxist, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam called the Makkal Nala Kootani was able to cut into anti-AIADMK votes and helped Jayalalithaa return to power.
The third front did not win a single assembly seat but took away around 5 per cent of DMK’s votes. As a result, Karunanidhi’s party lost to AIADMK by just 1 per cent votes.
Earlier, actor Vijayakanth had formed DMDK in 2005 and was the opposition in 2011 with one assembly seat and 8 per cent votes. He parted ways with Jayalalithaa in 2016 and joined the Left parties but drew a blank. In 2019, DMDK joined NDA but its vote share dropped to 2.1 per cent.
DMDK has now become irrelevant as Vijayakanth is not keeping good health and the CPI, CPI-M, VCK and MDMK have joined hands with the DMK.
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